Category Archives: Property Investor Economics

Expert Property Market Forecasts (2018)

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Expert Property Market Forecasts 2018

What follows is an extended post collating a wide array of commentary from property industry thought-leaders, who kindly took the time to reflect on the market moving into 2018. In addition to high-level insights into macro influences, price and rental trends, it is interesting to see the experts delve into a number of specific topics. Examples include the notable demographic shifts occurring across the country alongside the real effects of the Universal Credit (UC) rollout, Local Housing Allowance (LHA) freezes and the widening risks of homelessness. The continued evolution of the build-to-rent, property crowdfunding and online auction sectors have also been explored in some depth. For higher tax paying private landlords, taking heed of the intensifying effects of Section 24 of the Finance Act is frequently mentioned, as are some useful tips to best prepare, and indeed capitalise, for what... [Read More]

Property Investor’s Factfile – December 2017 Commentary

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Property Investor’s Buy-to-Let and Trader Factfile – December 2017 Commentary

December 2017 Property Investor´s Factfile The Property Investor’s Factfile presents a range of relevant data from national / London house prices, the latest buy-to-let Limited Company (SPV) loan rates, LIBOR / SWAP rates and rentals to mortgage debt figures and information on the first-time buyer sector.  Some noteworthy observations over the last month are outlined below: Property Market Trends According to Halifax data, between October and November house prices rose by 0.5% (for the fifth consecutive month), reaching 0.5% (3.2% higher than in January). Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax Community Bank commented: “slower growth patterns are likely to continue for the foreseeable future” and also that “increasing affordability issues, as price increases continue to outstrip wage growth, are likely to curb housing demand and cause price growth to ease”; Land Registry-tracked property prices grew by 0.4% between August and September and... [Read More]

Property Investor’s Factfile – November 2017 Commentary

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Distance shot photo of houses in Plymouth, England, UK.

November 2017 Property Investor´s Factfile The Property Investor’s Factfile presents a range of relevant data from national / London house prices, the latest buy-to-let Limited Company (SPV) loan rates, LIBOR / SWAP rates and rentals to mortgage debt figures and information on the first-time buyer sector.  Some noteworthy observations over the last month are outlined below: Property Price Trends According to Halifax data, house prices picked up 4.5% in the three months to October compared to the same period a year earlier. This figure was up from the 4% annualised growth figure in September and the fastest pace since February.  Although voicing concerns about increasing pressures on household finances, the Halifax did not expect the Monetary Policy Committee early November bank rate rise to be a barrier. Russell Galley from the Halifax in the FT stated: “The fact that the supply of... [Read More]

Rightmove Autumn Rental Market Update

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With approximately 300,000 rental properties currently on Rightmove, it is always interesting to speak with Sam Mitchell, head of lettings on the portal’s latest quarterly report. Rental Values Outside of London Drop by 0.2% National asking rents outside of London dropped by 0.2% in quarter 3, a relatively rare occurrence.  This largely comes down to supply and a continuation of the patterns highlighted in Rightmove’s quarter 2 report.  Essentially, the rush of property investors ahead of the stamp duty surcharge in April 2016 – particularly in Greater London and the South East – led to a residual increase of available rental stock accompanied by a slight slowdown in demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that landlords are still buying, albeit at a slower pace[1].  In recent years, the South East has seen a noticeable increase in rental property supply as investors seek... [Read More]

The Private Rented Sector (PRS) – Will the Trickle Become A Torrent?

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Now firmly embedded into most high-profile property development-related events, one of the many panel discussions at this year’s MIPIM[1] explored the current direction of the institutional Private Rented Sector (iPRS). Chaired by Damian Wilde[2], panellists Richard Snook[3], Bill Hughes[4] and Jacqui Daly[5] collectively delved into a number of topics related to build to rent’s sustained growth, how the sector fits into the wider picture of housing provision, some of the imminent macro-related risks and how modular housing has the potential to accelerate future delivery[6]. The Role of Private Rented Sector in the Coming Decade Richard Snook provided some background as to how “generation rent” has developed to its current form – largely extracted from the 2016 PwC housing market outlook report. As seen in the chart below, the noticeable increase in mortgaged property ownership during the Thatcher years contrasted with... [Read More]

Property Investor’s Factfile – October 2017 Commentary

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October 2017 Property Investor´s Factfile The Property Investor Blog´s monthly factfile presents a range of relevant data from national / London house prices, the latest buy to let Limited Company (SPV) loan rates, LIBOR / SWAP rates and rentals to mortgage debt figures and information on the first-time buyer sector.  Some noteworthy observations from the last month are outlined below: According to Rightmove, property asking prices dropped by 1.17% in September – representing the third fall in the previous four months.  Observing that some northern regions were still showing marginal signs of upwards price pressure, co-founder Miles Shipside repoted that: “estate agents are clearly advising many sellers that they have to lower their price expectations to fit in with buyers’ stretched financial resources, with that price compromise hopefully generating extra buyer interest”.  According to Rightmove, the drop has been “exacerbated” by London’s stagnating asking price... [Read More]

Buy-to-Let Property Investor´s Financial Calculator

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Buy to Let Financial Calculator

Particularly given the changing economics of the buy-to-let sector, and what we feel is the need to adopt a judicious approach to the relative merits of a given deal, the financial calculator has been developed to facilitate a more detailed analysis.  Please click here or fill your details in the short “JOIN OUR E-MAIL LIST” form to receive the file (as well as the accompanying notes and our professional property investor’s e-book). Built in Microsoft Excel, the calculator has been split into 7 sections: Headline Figures: provide users with a cursory glance (using data extracted from the following section).  Note that this particular spreadsheet caters only to single-let residential property analysis (not Houses of Multiple Occupation, multiple units, developments, refurbishments etc.); Detailed Figures / Information: a breakdown of 46 fundamental metrics and essential data sources based on inputting a handful of... [Read More]

Buy-to-Let Property Investor´s eBook

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The first edition of the PS Investor Services eBook has been compiled in a buy-to-let operational environment where, particularly in recent years, recurring fiscal and regulatory intervention has seemingly become customary. The 28,000+ word digital document aims to dissect the principal issues of concern in the coming years and will be of interest to investor-landlords who embrace a longer term and professional outlook to property wealth accumulation. Readers will also find hints, tips and and a wide range of up-to-date resources relevant to the buy-to-let industry’s fast-changing operational environment. Please click here or fill your details in our contact box to receive the e-book (as well as our financial calculator and accompanying notes). The easily accessible PDF has been split into 10 chapters, broadly outlined below: Formally introduced in January 2017, the core aim of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) revised affordability... [Read More]

Commentary on the September 2017 Property Investor´s Factfile

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September 2017 Property Investor´s Factfile The Property Investor Blog´s monthly factfile presents a range of relevant data from national / London house prices, the latest buy-to-let Limited Company (SPV) loan rates, LIBOR / SWAP rates and rentals to mortgage debt figures and information on the first-time buyer sector.  Some noteworthy observations from the last month are outlined below: According to the latest Rightmove house price index, UK house prices fell 0.9% month-on-month in August but remained up 3.1% on the year. Rightmove director and housing market analyst Miles Shipside commented: “A combination of traditional summertime price blues and the chill of uncertainty in the air has cooled price growth in some parts of the country.  Affordability also remains very stretched. But despite these factors, high demand and limited supply are still driving momentum, especially in the counties in the middle of the country;” The... [Read More]

Making the Private Rented Sector Work for People in Poverty

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The following write up is from a summer 2017 event held by social policy research and development charity the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) – principally exploring how the private rented sector can work better for lower income groups and those in poverty.  Timely in nature in terms of its proximity to the Grenfell Tower disaster, Campbell Robb, chief executive of the organisation, started the event by reasoning how the social / affordable housing crisis continues to elicit opinions from all sides.  However, the broad consensus remains that both policy making and market dynamics are not keeping up with the changes necessary to improve the current landscape. After some real-life quotes from tenants across the country, Robb went on to describe the Private Rented Sector (PRS) as the “home of poverty” – with current estimations pointing to 4.7 million people living in poor... [Read More]