Roberta Ward: Leading Property Mentor & Founder of New Digital Investor Magazine Speaks

February 3rd, 2011

Please see an interview with one of the UK’s most reputable property entrepreneurs and owner of My Property Mentor, Roberta Ward.  In addition to talking about her new digital magazine – Investor Insight – we discuss the short term risks in the market; effective strategies to adopt moving forward; medium term expectations; lease options; joint-venturing and the property ‘guru’ phenomenon amongst other topics…

1) So, what have you been up to over the last year? Last year (and the year before) were real turn around years for us. We took a step back and reviewed all our assets and investments.  We made sure they were running to maximum efficiency, re-invested spare cash in other diverse projects and got very active in social media. We have also been planning a new Digital Investor magazine, which has just launched (Investor Insight).

2) Bar rising interest rates, what do you think are the major impending risks for UK property investors? Tax issues will be a major factor, there are lots of new changes coming in this year which will effect investors at both ends of a deal. And of course the lack of real finance will play a big factor in the market as a whole – whether thats rental or sales.

3) How do you think they could potentially be minimised? Get your financial advisor to inspect your tax issues so you dont loose money by not knowing the new rules, and, so you can move money into other areas. Be sure they are claiming all they can for you before the loop holes are closed by the current cuts. Now is the time to shore up all your investments and diversify into other things so you spread your risks-if you have not already done so.

4) What would be your advice to both newbie and experienced investors looking to strategise effectively moving forward? No one should enter the market unless they have some money behind them, proven income and a good credit history are key to getting finance. The days of back to back mortgages are long gone and unlikely to return for the foreseeable future. If you don’t have the above, then the next best thing is a joint venture with someone who has. These are tried and tested ways of investing in all markets, not fads like lease options for example. Anyone that tells you having a bunch of tenants is a ‘passive’ income is talking jibberish. Tenants are anything but passive and the more the market tightens the more competition there will be. It’s likely that there will be more demand for room rents if rentals rise beyond reach and as job losses bite. We’ve seen a marked rise in new room rent agents in our area, which is something I will be blogging about shortly too.

5) What are your thoughts on the medium term property market in the UK (the next 5 years)? Property investing in this market is not for the faint hearted, and I think you have to be in it full time to make it work for you. Eventually the market will sort itself out, especially if its allowed to crash. If the govt tinkers with it too much the recovery will be delayed.We are in for some tough times ahead.  As always, supply and demand will be the key pointers to which way the market will end up.

6) Would you ever recommend lease options as a property investment strategy? This is a difficult market even for some seasoned professionals, and many folk are looking for the next big thing to allow them to control property without any risk. However, property investing is ALL about risk. In my opinion lease options should not be used on the residential market. its only a matter of time before lease options are regulated. They will go the way of SARB. All it takes is for the media to get a whiff of what’s going on and for the FSA to intervene. Ultimately the FSA will have more powers thrown their way in the govt shake up. Remember too that some very big portfolio building companies have gone bankrupt last year, and many properties they acquired were done via lease options. What happened to the vendors of those properties acquired by options? This should tell you something. If your deals are not about creating a good outcome for all parties, then it’s about fleecing the property owner.

7) Is the market currently therefore only for the cash rich for the foreseeable future? Personally I think it is. There are plenty of auction bargains to be had for cash rich investors. And to be fair, when you play the property game with your own money, it becomes much more real- which is what it should be.There are opportunities in all markets, it depends on your focus.I suspect BTL will become further regulated ( if that’s possible!) which will deter some newer investors or those looking to replace a pension with a BTL.

8)We previously spoke on joint ventures – are there any new factors that have to be considered when exploring this strategy in the current market? With joint ventures, the main thing is not to be too greedy in the beginning.  Work up to the bigger deals,  don’t go mad at the start looking for massive deals. I’ve heard of many people paying too much attention to the deal entry and not to the exit. The exit strategy is a key element, particularly in this climate. If you are starting with new partners you have to test the waters to make sure you all trust each other and get on. Make sure the paperwork has no ambiguities and that all sides are clear on their roles, duties and legal framework. JVs are a timeless way to invest if you have some skills or money to offer. There is always a way to create a win/ win if you look at all the angles.  My downloadable e-book goes into more detail about JVs.

9) There has a been a lot of debate on the ‘property guru’ phenomenon – what do you think it takes to be a true property ‘expert’? Well it’s not easy that’s for sure! A true expert is one that has been through at least one crash in the market and survived, not someone who has been around only when the finance was easy. There is NO substitute for experience. I look at it this way, if someone is selling a course or system, then are they really investing gurus or are they marketing gurus?  Both are fine in their own right, but only one is a property expert. Anyone can rehash others information to sell a course.

10) Please can you tell us about your new website – Investor Insightand why you chose to create it?
Over the last couple of years we as a company and as individuals have invested in many diverse things so that when the property crash came we were prepared. We were lucky to be introduced to a seriously switched on IFA who was well connected in the City. As a company and as investors we have learned so much that we decided to put all this new information & excellent contacts to greater use and build an investor site. The site is about investing as a whole, including wealth generation, tax, legal issues, property here and abroad, sustainable investment, stocks and shares and all the other stuff in between. We’re planning regular celebrity and well known article writers, competitions with large prizes and loads more! Our aim is to make investing approachable, easy and interactive for all with an interest. By passing along the great knowledge and contacts we have we hope to continue to show people a wider and safer investing model than just pure property.

http://mypropertymentor.co.uk
http://investorinsight.net

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Property Lease Options – A Dying Investment Strategy?

January 20th, 2011

Using lease options to control property has grown to become an investment technique being used popularly around the country – particularly as a consequence of stringent BTL finance rules impeding many business growth strategies.  As what was to be expected, many have either been sceptical about their medium to long term effectiveness or pointed to the fact that there is no tangible ownership being a major negative.  Nevertheless, for the time being, their use is likely to remain and so we therefore chatted to one the UK’s thought leaders on the topic – Mark Jackson of Lease Options Made Simple – on a number of subjects including legal issues; the ‘fad’ argument; benefits / risks; potential FSA intervention and protecting future interests amongst others.

1) Can you give us a bit of an outline about your experience and why choose to set up ´Lease Options Made Simple´? I fell in love with property at the tender age of seven. It was then my parents bought our first family home, which we renovated, lived in and sold. Later, when I was 14, we bought a heavily wooded plot of land and lived in a caravan for two years while we built our home from scratch. The whole experience taught me some important lessons about life and that over time property can be a great way to invest and create wealth.

When I returned to the UK after ten years of voluntary work in poorer countries in 2004 I was determined to become financially free, and was convinced that property was the best way for me. I set about learning how I could acquire a portfolio of investment property without huge amounts of cash. In fact, at that time, I had no credit history at all, and even less cash.

In 2006 I used a property option to secure and buy the tiny flat I was renting in Richmond, North Yorkshire. Then I started building a portfolio, buying property from other investors and home-owners using property lease options and other advanced purchasing techniques, like seller finance. I loved the problem-solving power of property lease options, and I found it very easy to negotiate and structure deals with motivated sellers. I wanted to share my experience, since lease options had liberated me from a struggle to make ends meet to no longer needing to work, and in a short time.

2009 saw the interest in lease options in the UK increase sharply and it was then I approached Wendy Patton to discuss the possibility of creating Lease Options Made Simple. Wendy has enormous experience with lease options in the US (more than 24 years of investing experience and over 650 deals personally agreed) and this rich experience, longevity and a refreshing approach to motivated sellers really appealed to me. We formed Lease Options Made Simple in 2010 and thoroughly enjoy working together.

The use of lease options to aquire property – particularly since investors have had increasing difficulty in undertaking no money down – has grown in popularity in recent years.  Are they really a viable strategy in the modern day property investment market or – as some have debated – a bit of a ´fad´? You make an important point here. In my experience it is only those who have yet to enjoy success with lease options who call them a ‘fad’. Without being offensive or derogatory, comments like that make me think of the Aesop’s fable about the fox and the grapes…So I suppose whether you consider lease options a fad or not would depend on your experience with them. Viability is in my mind a question of availability, sustainability, longevity and security. Do lease options done well meet those criteria? In my opinion, yes. Why? Lease options give you control without ownership and at times when ownership is challenging, lease options are a viable, solid alternative. Wendy’s 24 years of lease options experience is a powerful answer to the question of viability.

What are the main benefits of building a lease option portfolio in 2011?

  • Freedom for investors to continue building a portfolio at a time when there is a sea of discounted property;
  • Existing finance is often cheaper than new buy to let products available often resulting in much better cash-flow at a time of a historically low base rate;
  • The number of properties you can secure is limited not by external factors, such as the availability of bank finance but by how many units you can find, manage and maintain;
  • The rental market is set to be strong in 2011, meaning fewer voids and higher rents, so now is a good time to work towards replacing an income from a job and take that step towards financial independence through property lease options;
  • Because you don’t need a new mortgage to get control of a property with lease options you are able to exchange more quickly and move on to the next deal.

What do you feel are the main reasons that some investors are against the strategy of lease options?

  • The poor quality of some of the ‘deals’ packaged and offered as investments. I’ve seen some being sold with negative equity, huge arrears, distressed sellers and dubious due diligence;
  • Sandwich options which rely on two lease options running Seller – Investor and Investor – Buyer are, in my opinion, unfair to both seller and tenant-buyer. When they are talked of as a viable strategy in the UK they do lease options a disservice. Why so? Sandwich options structured this way offer the tenant-buyer little or no security;
  • Lease options are still quite new in the UK and the advantages they can bring are so enormous, they could seem too good to be true. “There must be a catch;”
  • There has been a lot of hype surrounding lease options and clever marketing, and this turns some of us off. We have a limited number of experienced lease options investors in the UK who are actually writing lease options, and investors know when someone is talking from experience or selling courses. You can find lots of reliable information about lease options on our site: www.LeaseOptionsMadeSimple.co.uk;

What are the main strategies that can be used this year in order to ensure maximum profitability? For fast cash – cooperative options, where you cooperate with a seller willing to give terms and find a motivated buyer. In many parts of the country controlling property and tenanting while you wait for the market to show its hand is profitable. If you keep your options open you can always use a tenant-buyer strategy later if the market lifts and your optioned property is worth more. Always target property with equity and agree to have at least part of the monthly payment coming off the end purchase price.

What do you see as the main risks and how can they be minimised?

  • Having the seller made bankrupt, or declaring himself bankrupt;
  • A seller challenging the option agreement three years down the line on the basis that it is unfair or they didn’t understand what they were entering in to.

These can be minimised by avoiding distressed sellers, having a watertight paperwork system and making sure that the seller has adequate, qualified legal representation from the outset.

As with what happened with sale and rent back (SARB) a few years back – how long will it be before the FSA begin investigating lease options deals and what will be the implications of investors using this strategy? That’s a difficult one…You can be sure the FSA is already interested to some extent in lease options. Of course, it’s good to be running your options business as if it were already a regulated activity. The implications of regulation would depend on the level of control the FSA wanted to see imposed. These things are not retrospective, though, so any regulation would be unlikely to affect lease option deals already written.

Would you recommend undertaking lease options to a beginner in property? Yes. Why not? Beginners can do better with lease options than seasoned investors because they do not have the limiting belief “Why would anyone agree to this?” It is important to get good lease options education and have access to experienced investors for support. The first deal is always the most difficult.

Should a lease option portfolio building strategy always be combined with one of buying property in the ´normal´ way? If you can create wealth through control and without the burden of ownership, why would you ever need to buy in the normal way? If it is more profitable for now to piggy-back on somebody else’s existing finance, then that would be a good idea.

Of course, there are some advantages to ownership, but if you can’t get a mortgage, get started with lease options. There are some option properties in my portfolio I want to buy or sell on this year, possibly through a JV partner, just because they are such good deals and we are already well in to the option period.  I have already built up healthy credits and want to have that considerable created equity credited to me.

In terms of protecting the future interest in an optioned property, how can this be protected (many have criticised the legality of the contracts that have / are being put together)? There are certain fundamentals that every option investor will want to take care of to protect his interest:

  • Register the option with LR once paperwork has been exchanged;
  • Make sure you are using the latest lease option paperwork;
  • Make sure you have control over the mortgage payments and authority to talk with the lender on the seller’s behalf;
  • Tell the lender that you have agreed an option with the seller;
  • Don’t deal with distressed sellers – you are storing up future problems.
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2011 House Price Thoughts, Predictions and Strategies

December 16th, 2010

Please see below some quotes of the leading UK property related company owners and investors on their thoughts for the coming year.  We would like to thank all who participated and would encourage readers to click on to their websites to find out more about their services:

James Davis – Upad

“We’re expecting continued downward pressure on property prices due to lack of available financing – though of course this will hit some areas of the country much harder than others. Limits on LTV and product fees are prohibitive for many buyers right now and this isn’t likely to change over the next 12 months.

Because of the slow sales market, we’re expecting to see the rise again of the “accidental landlord” – people who need to move but can’t sell their property. Fortunately for them, demand in the rental market is likely to remain exceptionally strong. We won’t be surprised to see rent increases of 10% or more over the next year, and in some areas potentially even more. While restricted lending is hampering many property investors, those landlords who do have access to cash are likely to see yields increase significantly.”

Julie Hanson Just do Property

“So what does 2011 have in store for UK house prices? Well that is the ultimate question we all want the answer to.  Across the board we are back to prices from the same time last year, approximately 2.5% below the highs seem during the year.

The general consensus from the key House Price Index organisations seems to be a fairly flat market with some downward pressure due to the uncertainty with the economy and also investors will to wait longer to snap up good deals. With the general view that interest rates will continue to remain low in 2011 helping to ward off loan defaults and repossessions – this in turn should help keep any further fall in prices to a minimum. Of course regionally the picture is different and we may see stronger falls in some areas with increases in others.”

Parmdeep Vadesha The Property Tycoon Method

“2011 will be an exciting year for property investors… Tougher access to finance and continued downbeat media coverage will deter all but the creative and prepared investors who will be cleaning up while the unprepared worry about property prices, problem tenants or some other aspect of property investment that can be easily managed in reality. Property is a long term investment vehicle and should be approached sensibly with a sound long term strategy.”

Rob Moore – Progressive Property

“A ‘lost generation’ of first time buyers [FTB’s] who can’t get on the housing ladder will force down the values of properties, but landlords will benefit from record rents, high demand, shrinking void periods, and low interest rates which are set to stay the same throughout 2011. Lenders are catching on to the levels of increased rental demand and the likes of Paragon and larger groups like Santander will show a greater interest in landlords next year by taking on new business. The question arises should you jump on the buy to let bandwagon? We will definitely witness a backlog of repossessions through into the New Year, which will be very attractive to professional investors. Although we will not see any capital growth for some time to come, and prices are looking to stay depressed until 2012, strong rents, higher yields [cashflow] and more negotiable sellers making bigger discounts are already and will continue to become a reality, even to novice investors. Estate Agents need you more and are more motivated to offer you deals that wouldn’t have seen the window 4 years ago

Although it may still be tricky to get access to finance with fewer mortgages available now than at the height of the boom, this should not deter you from investing. Access to Joint Venture [JV] and Private Investor [PI] finance has never been as liquid: keen to protect the value of their cash and to replace the loss of interest income, many see injecting their cash into a buy-to-let property a better return on investment [ROI]. See my latest article by clicking here.

The “Own nothing, control everything strategy” will become far more common place in 2011, with a greater degree of investors trading options, monetising on their reject deals [DP], and earning more passively with a greater degree of opportunities

Yes we will see a fall in house prices, yes lending will still be scrappy, and this should be you’re OPPORTUNITY to invest like a true Contrarian [Warren Buffett, George Soros] and buy at the right price, enjoy the healthy cash flow, monetise different property related revenue streams [without the need for a mortgage]. Be patient and wait for the cyclical nature of the property cycle to rise, where your capital appreciation will return to heights in the future, like 2001 – 2007”

Gary Murphy – Allsop Auction House

“We ended 2010 on a high note with a £45.7m residential auction selling 85% of all lots offered. The sale brings the residential sales total for the year to £335m and 88% from 2089 lots (2009 £330m and 87% from 2049 lots).  In spite of the gloomy economic background, it’s encouraging to see that buyers of residential property are happy to turn out in large numbers to compete so aggressively. It’s all about pricing of course – value for money is key to success today.  At the December auction, competition wasn’t limited to the perceived safety of London and the south east and regional lots drew some strong interest.  None more so than 100 acres of grazing land on the fringe of Dunblane, Scotland: guided at £300,000 to £500,000, after 20 minutes of tense bidding, it was knocked down for £1.11m. It was also good to see owner occupiers bidding confidently – they are giving buy to let investors a run for their money. Lot 142, a large house in Herondale Avenue, Wandsworth, for example, sold for £1.71m from a guide of £1.3 – £1.5m.  This has been an excellent end to a very successful year for the team and we are excited about the prospects that 2011 will bring.”

Lisa Orme (Williams) – Keys Mortgages Ltd

“I’m incredibly optimistic about the rental sector and the housing market for the next few years; in fact I’d go so far as to say there’s never been a better time to be landlord. That’s hard to swallow for some when they feel they missed the ‘easy lending and property boom of the 2000s’ but let me put my neck on the line!

The lack of mortgage availability and liquidity in the market means more people are choosing to rent as they can’t get a mortgage or raise the deposits (10% minimum realistically), others can’t move as they’re fearful of job cuts or have lost equity in their homes creating a fairly inactive property market. In addition we have the same old issues of death, divorce, separation, debt and so on that put more people into the housing market as well as youngsters wanting place of their own. The latest figures show less people are leaving the UK than have done for years and a fresh wave of EU migrants are returning to the UK to take up jobs UK people won’t leading to net immigration.

Job losses, increased financial commitments, VAT increases and inflation will add to people’s concerns for their finances and lead them to stay put, rent instead of own or force many into repossession.

There’s a distinct lack of social housing as we know, councils have sold off much of their stock and aren’t building many more, housing associations similarly as they benefited most from taking a share of new build estates and we know who they have suffered recently. Many of these people will therefore need to rent. Capital Economics predicts that by 2015 1 in 5 households will live in privet rented accommodation. This will push rents up.  As prices fall further, rents increase and rates stay low for the foreseeable future cashflow and yields will go up and this will encourage lenders into the buy to let arena.

Housing starts are at their lowest since the 1920s and again coupled with a rising population the tipping point will no doubt arise. The banking crisis will be forgotten, tenants will realise they’re better off buying than renting, the economy will be on the road to recovery and house prices will start to rise again. I estimate this will be in about 5 years and we could see an even bigger boom than the last one!

All in all a good time to be a landlord but don’t forget the old adage prices can fall as well as rise and rents certainly can too! Have a plan b, c, d and e just in case!”

Bernard Clarke – The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)

“With growth in output likely to be relatively modest and the rate of inflation expected to fall sharply at the beginning of 2012 as the effect of January’s increase in VAT to 20% falls out of the annual calculation, the Bank of England is expected to continue to pursue a relaxed monetary policy. It is unlikely that the base rate will rise significantly in the short term and it is quite possible that it will remain unchanged at its current level of 0.5% for the whole of next year.

The key messages behind our forecasts for 2011 are:

  • The UK economy has begun a process of long-term re-balancing. Public sector spending cuts imply a difficult jobs market in the coming years. And with households also seeking to reduce levels of indebtedness, demand for mortgages may be subdued for some time;
  • Over the short to medium term, lenders will need to manage some large-scale re-financing of wholesale funding. From April next year onwards, lenders will begin to have to re-pay the funding advanced through official support schemes. This is likely to limit the availability of credit to support mortgage lending next year, and beyond;
  • Historically low interest rates are likely to underpin significantly current house price values, despite low levels of property sales;
  • The continuing prospect of low interest rates, and flat or modestly falling house prices, reinforces the likelihood that remortgaging levels will remain low, even though growing numbers of borrowers are coming to the end of introductory deals and reverting to their lenders’ standard variable rate;
  • Low interest rates will help the vast majority of households to manage to keep up with their loan repayments and so will help keep mortgage arrears and possessions in check;
  • The outcome of the Financial Services Authority’s (FSA) ongoing mortgage market review continues to be a major and unhelpful source of uncertainty for the lending industry. Firms do not know when the FSA will issue firm rules or whether it will modify its current excessively risk-averse approach. This uncertainty will itself reinforce lenders’ caution.”

Peter Williams – Academetrics House Price Research

“The uncertainty in the market that has characterised 2010 will continue into 2011. Although we have seen encouraging signs of growth in the economy, this may be partly a consequence of expenditure being brought forward to avoid the VAT rise as well as the flow through from expenditure decisions taken by both the previous and current governments. Although some momentum may be maintained, 2011 will also see increased pressure on lenders in terms of funding along with the steadily increasing impact of the austerity budget earlier this year.

All this suggests that though there will be some good news (including ‘the wedding’) this will be balanced off by negatives and our expectation is that house price rises over the 12 months to December 2011 will again be close to zero across the country as a whole (perhaps in the 0 to 3% range).Transactions might edge up a little from the very low base at present (again with, perhaps, up to a 5% increase).

What is much more certain, is that the housing market will respond in different ways in different areas and according to the different property types. Prime properties in prime districts of central London and other major cities are examples of this. This will be a reflection of the very varied geography of the recovery, incomes, savings and access to mortgages.

Thus, although our expectations for the year are somewhat modest, we do have a market where annually demand exceeds supply both nationally and in many localities. We would expect local variations to intensify and it will be important for all those involved in the market to understand local trends. PS Investor Services readers might be interested in our local and regional price and transaction trend data which can be found via this link.”

Yogesh Chandarana – Landlord Action

“With the continued challenging economic climate and caps on LHA rates coming into effect in 2011, we predict that many landlords will face a challenging 2011. We are, therefore, expecting to see a rise in possession actions.

The Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML) has recently forecast that repossessions will rise to 40,000 in 2011. Currently, 175,000 home mortgages stand in arrears and the CML predict that this will increase slightly to 180,000 in 2011.

It is not all bad news: landlords will be pleased that tight credit markets are restricting the supply of new housing stock for the private rented sector. This implies that prices will remain at or around their current level. Whilst this restricts landlords and property investor’s ability to invest in new property, it has already had the effect of pushing up rental prices for landlords.

The Government has incentivised landlords with direct payments of housing benefit if they reduce their rent in line with new LHA rates. We advise that these new incentives are met with caution.”

Aran Curry – Mortgage Insight

“I believe that 2011 is going to be a steady year. House prices twelve months from now will more or less be where they are now – perhaps a very small increase. The important thing is for people to stop worrying about little tweaks in movement. Property is a long term game and without a doubt it will be worth a lot more in 10 years time. Invest now and worry about what the price is in 2/3 years time.”

Ben Hughes and George Nartey – Social Housing Expert

“Government has proposed radical reforms to Welfare with Local Housing Allowance payments expected to be cut as part of wider measures to tackle the £155 billion budget deficit. Reform is also intended to address issues which have ensured sensational headlines for the Local Housing Allowance!

The speed and extent of the proposed cuts however, has created serious concern for tenants and landlords. Local Authorities, Housing Associations, landlord associations, MPs, the Mayor of London, Shelter and Crisis amongst others also fear that tenants will be forced into rent arrears and that evictions, increasing homelessness and social upheaval will result.

With these changes in mind, and continuing credit constraints, experienced Social Housing investors Ben Hughes and George Nartey expect that 2011 will be a challenging year. On the plus side however, the shortage of Social Housing (1.8 million families are on Council waiting lists), new-build at a 60 year low, higher unemployment and a growing population, will create strong opportunities for informed investors.

Investors who provide good homes for the Social Housing sector in areas of greatest need often benefit from very low voids, 3-5 year leasing schemes, guaranteed rents, renovation grants, free management and other incentives, all of which contribute positively to the bottom line!  Happy Investing in 2011!”

Sarah Beeney – Tepilo / C4’s Property Ladder

“I think at the moment we are still bouncing along the bottom of the market, and price rises shouldn’t be too dominant for some time, but also won’t fall much either. If you need to sell I would suggest you get going now or in the New Year. If you haven’t found a property you want to buy, then there’s no point in buying anything until it’s the right one – the cost of moving can be as much as 10% these days.

Property is most definitely still selling! The most important thing to remember in this climate is to remain calm.  Do all you can to not take into consideration headline scaremongering of a predicted 14.7% drop in values in one newspaper one day or a 16.4% rise in another newspaper the next – why not 13.9% or 15.8% as they would be likely to be as accurate?  If you have to sell for less you can more than likely buy for less too. The truth is you need to keep both feet on the ground and get finance you can afford to pay off and a property that will suit your needs for the next few years.   If you are selling be realistic about how much you can sell for and you will get a buyer and of course save yourself thousands of pounds by using www.tepilo.com where it’s free to sell.”

Jonathan Davis – Jonathan Davis Chartered Financial Planner

The above chart does not show that prices got back up to their late 2007 peak.  What it shows is prices fell hard for around a year and a half then they bounced for around a year.  However, the rise was much shallower than the preceding fall (down c 18%; up c 9%).  Average prices topped out in early Summer at c 10% below the all-time peak of late 2007.  Prices have been falling since and soon they will go negative, year-on-year.  Prices will likely plummet over the next couple of years – as we said they would before Crash #1 and repeatedly since.  We said that prices would fall 40-50% over a few years.  We remain on course for that forecast to be proven accurate.

Transaction numbers are heavily down and continuing to fall, lending is severely restricted due to ongoing national and international banking problems, BTL numbers are 80% down on 2007, unemployment will likely rise significantly due to government cutbacks and repossessions will likely rise as banks see it as politically acceptable to do so (long term arrears are high – even with record low mortgage costs).  Thus, price changes will likely go negative, year on year, by the early part of next year and will continue down for 2 or 3 years.  10-15% fall 2011 and 30% fall by 2013.

Paul Howard (Head of Corporate Accounts) – The Mortgage Works

“If you’re already a landlord and you’re thinking about your future mortgage options, you need to think about what may happen to interest rates. Interest rate prediction is not an exact science and people don’t really know when they will rise.  If you believe that interest rates won’t rise for some time, then it might be best to stay on your variable rate – unless you require further funding.   If however you think interest rates are set to rise, then it may be sensible to consider your remortgage and purchase options now.   If rates do rise, this in itself will probably stimulate the property market leading to more activity and therefore increases in prices.  In this respect, you would be better to buy now while the bargains are available.  There is good evidence that the buy-to-let remortgage market is very much alive and The Mortgage Works is currently seeing a significant proportion of its new business coming from landlords remortgaging from other lenders.

Optimism is returning to the buy-to-let market and positive indicators are evident.  Although the level of funding is not the same as the pre-crunch days, lenders are returning to the market and those such as The Mortgage Works are very much open for business.  Challenges ahead remain but I am confident that, taking all things into account, buy-to-let lenders and landlords are helping to fulfil a real social need.”

Liz Peace – Chief Executive of the British Property Federation

“The next year could see a significant furthering of the property ‘North-South divide’, as the government’s spending cuts begin to bite. That is unless government acts decisively to stimulate the private sector to take up the economic output that will be lost from the public sector.

The cuts are set to have a disproportionately large impact in the North, which is heavily reliant on public expenditure and employment. This in turn could stifle demand for residential and commercial property. For London and the South, significantly less exposed to the public sector, the picture is a little rosier.

The government does however find itself presented with several opportunities to rebalance the UK economy that could see the private sector offset the worst effects of the lost public sector investment.

Mechanisms such as Tax Increment Financing, the New Homes Bonus and incentivising councils to approve developments by allowing them to retain the increase in business rates, have the potential to increase spark urban renewal and boost occupier demand in our towns and cities.”

Mark Jackson – Lease Options Made Simple

“Taking a shower at 8 a.m. on the top floor of a three star hotel can be a bit of an ordeal. Instead of the anticipated ‘power shower’ all you get is a tepid dribble. That picture neatly portrays the state of liquidity in the UK housing market as we approach 2011.

The issue is not so much about cash reserves being low, just as the disappointment with the shower is not caused by a drought; it’s more a question of how available funding is flowing. If everybody in a full hotel wants a shower at the same time, some guests will get a better service. Likewise, as long as it is more profitable and less risky to lend to individuals through credit cards, personal loans and residential remortgages, funding in the buy-to-let market will be reduced.

In 2011, I expect to see the popularity of no-money-down purchases on below market value property fall. Why?

  • Lenders will continue to restrict the number of mortgages they grant to investors;
  • New hurdles to no-money-down property purchases will be created by lenders;
  • Further serious questions about the legality of some schemes will be raised within the investor community, damaging confidence;
  • Other important and alternative ways of controlling property without the need for new bank finance – like lease options – will become more common.

House prices will likely fall further in 2011 (with the exception of London) due to tightened lending criteria, an increase in unemployment and continuing buyer uncertainty. However, pent up demand will drive a future increase in house prices, as the UK will see 250,000 new households formed every year between now and 2031. This demand will need to be satisfied and, like a cork is forced from a well-shaken champagne bottle, I expect house prices to fly upwards from 2013.

Investors who want to take advantage of this very exciting time will be keen to learn to use lease options well in 2011. We will, however, also see serious issues and questions raised, as investors have yet to understand the dangers of agreeing lease options with distressed sellers, the implications of the all-monies clause, the ticking time-bomb we call sandwich options and the fragility of some lease option paperwork currently being used. Lease options are still little understood in the UK.

For cashflow without the headache of managing tenants we will see investors using cooperative options, an arrangement in which the investor links seller and buyer with a lease option contract and takes a substantial upfront payment.

So, in my opinion, no ‘power shower’ expected during 2011 and 2012 for the UK property market. In the meantime any investor who wants to take advantage of an amazing opportunity to increase wealth through property in any significant way will use strategies which allow portfolio building by piggy-backing on the owner’s existing finance, which is exactly what lease options allow you to do.”

Nick Dare – Dare Property

“Along with FIFA’s recent decision to award the next football World Cups to Russia and Qatar, one can sometimes be forgiven for believing the nation’s favourite topic of conversation is that of house prices.

With six recognised house price indices and counting; bulls, bears and everyone in between can find support for their beliefs. I am sorry to disappoint but despite having what must be the most analysed residential property market in the world, the reality is  no-one knows what 2011 will bring.

What is clear is that, again like the World Cup bidding process, there will be winners and losers. Parts of London, the South-East and select pockets in other regions will pull away from and outperform the general market. Like it or not, such markets are not affected by the same macro and micro economic factors as the mainstream property market. Indeed, they are characterised by a high percentage of cash buyers (over 80% in places) and first time buyers being helped by “the bank of Mum and Dad.”

On a macro level, Bank of England base rates can now be expected to remain at their historic lows well into 2011. Despite increasing margins charged by the banks for mortgage lending, my fear is too many individuals now consider this “the new normal.” It is not. Base rates will have to increase; possibly not for another 9 months but increase they will.

The impact of future base rate increases needs to considered along with the impending tax increases, Public Sector cuts and what I believe will be an increased tightening in bank lending as banks repay their vast loans via the Special Liquidity Scheme and other vehicles.

For those parts of the country reliant on the Public Sector and where the Private Sector base is insufficient to absorb job losses, we guestimate house prices may fall by around 6% over the coming year. In some micro locations particularly affected by business closures, the fall may be greater.

In areas such as the South-East, London and prime coastal spots, we would anticipate the volume of transactions to remain around half of previous levels. As anyone who invests in the stock market will know, low volumes of trading result in higher volatility. Our guestimate for these regions is for slight increases and falls month by month and for a largely flat 2011 overall.

Of course, should the current Eurozone economic crisis spread to Spain, Italy and beyond all bets are off. Up to now, a shortage of new homes being built along with a growing number of new households has helped to provide a floor to price decreases. There is no avoiding the single most important component of the UK housing market – availability of credit and for the average UK house price that more than anything else will shape the year to come.”

Russell Short – Property Partners Online

“2011 promises to be a difficult year for the UK property market. With austerity measures starting to grip the UK, unemployment stubbornly high and the Eurozone looking unstable the economic forecast is grim reading. Property prices are widely expected to fall and indeed latest figures show a net decrease of 0.8% over October. With Mortgage Lenders still reluctant to advance funds without large deposits the housing market is certainly set for a period of stagnation at the very best. But, its not all bad news! Landlords and agents are now reporting rent increases in many parts of the country. This is a direct result of the mortgage companies suffiocating approach which is driving average property prices down and subsequently forcing more potential buyers into tenanted properties. The rise in demand has seen some agents asking for sealed bids from prospective tenants so driving prices up.

I will stick my neck out and predict that interest rates will remain low well into 2012 while rents across England and Wales increase by as much as 20% in some areas. As they say – Every cloud has a silver lining!”

Heidi Roberts – Premier Property Finders / The Office Blog

“So what about 2011? Well without my crystal ball, who knows! But let’s take a guess… With potential interest rate rises, (even if they are only small), January’s jump in VAT to 20%, higher unemployment and steep increases in food and fuel bills on the horizon, it seems unlikely things are about to get easier for homeowners in 2011. Also media hype is definitely affecting potential purchasers’ expectations regarding prices, with lower offers being made as a result.  If the media does not get too negative, there is no reason for a dip. Bricks and mortar are still attractive investments. A bit of positive talk would help the market pick up.

What does this add up to? For the economy, the hit to the incomes of the ‘squeezed middle’ means lower growth because this is a large demographic that spends virtually everything it earns. However, as in any situations, there are winners and losers. I feel that on the whole, the housing market in 2011 will be a cooling market. Would now be a good time to buy? Hell yes! In my experience it is always a good time to buy if you’re holding property. If you are buying to sell on, then there are lots of bargains to be had and this will remain so for the foreseeable year ahead. Millionaires are made in recessions.

The conclusion I have reached after the 10 years of madcap lending, is that house prices are not a function of demand, but are simply a function of how much money the lenders are willing to advance. Almost everything else is immaterial with the exception of the media. With few signs that the banks are going to ‘play ball’ it is difficult to see how prices can advance much further. But being of a positive nature I am still thinking that ‘positive talk’ will help, as the media can be a powerful tool.”

Kevin Green – Kevin Green Properties / The Property Train

“It’s probably fair to say that the market this year has been bouncing a lot at the bottom and next year is likely to see prices remain static.  The banks are still being tough and my suggestion to investors is to be very careful in what you buy; ensure there is good cash flow as property prices will take some time to recover and, if using any creative strategy, make sure you fully understand your short, medium and long-term obligations.  The basis of my strategy is to continue to clear off the debt on my houses so I have an entirely mortgage free portfolio.”

Alan Forsyth – Property Secrets / Property Investment Deals

“Going into 2010 it was difficult to see the silver lining in the mortgage market for many people, as the media continued to enjoy the putdowns wherever possible. For me, I won’t sit here and write this saying I knew it would be fine, but I kept positive and understood that only the most savvy investors would keep buying property during 2010 and find a way to negotiate the mortgage minefield.  Below are some highlights:

The return of the 80% mortgage with The Mortgage Works – Highlighting lender confidence in the buy to let market and an underlying confidence that whilst property prices may be fluctuating, generally they do not expect any significant falls in value going forward.

The introduction of new lenders – Aldermore, Paragon, Precise, Kensington – If you told me at the beginning of the year that we would see the introduction/return of four new lenders, I would have told you to stop dreaming. Whilst their criteria and products are based around a cautious lender attitude, it’s a great sign for the buy to let market and I expect significant product improvements/ relaxed criteria going into 2011 as the competition increases.

A massive increase in available mortgage products – I can say that the biggest difference I have seen that my customers would not have noticed, is the availability of mortgage products in 2010. In fact, according to Mortgage Brain, they have doubled. The increase in mortgage products reveals that the increase of mortgage funding is going up. Borrowing from the BOE has been put aside in favour of banks offering customers super high interest rates and offsetting this against super high arrangement fees for mortgages. Whilst we complain about these arrangement fees, at present they are very important for bank funding. If a deal works, then most of us will be prepared to surrender to these high fees for a decent property on a low interest rate.

So to summarise, we have seen a surprisingly positive year of lending in the buy to let market in 2010. There is no better sign to indicate a growing property market (however slow or month by month variant) than the sign of lenders entering back into the mortgage market and seeing an increase in the number of mortgage products available. For those of you who took advantage of the deals in 2010, you can be sure you have made a safe investment and you will continue to benefit from high cash flow from your low rates mortgages well into 2011.

If I could give one tip going forward it would be to really grasp the data on your credit file. Most of us are lucky to have a portfolio of properties. Even the most hands-on investor will struggle to keep their file clean. It is keeping your file clean that will ensure you can obtain finance from the top lenders at low rates. It can be something as simple as a missed utility bill whilst your flat was empty that you didn’t know about which could leave you being declined by the likes of TMW and BM for low rates.

I never like to do this but I will put my neck on the line here, I honestly think that rates will stay low well into 2011. There are various pressures to increase rates (such as inflation) but with recent news on the state of the US economy coming to light and Euro Zone problems, I doubt the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will want to expose our economy to these dangers any time soon.”

Patrick Jacobs National Landlords Association

“In the last three years landlords have witnessed very little to be cheerful about in the BTL market. We will all recall the mass exodus of lenders and the wide withdrawal of products a short while ago and ever since one of the most significant obstacles facing property investors has been accessing affordable and appropriate finance.

Landlords have been getting increasingly frustrated at not being able to take advantage property prices which have dropped to the lowest levels in a number of years. While only those with particularly deep pockets have been able to expand their portfolios. However, it would appear that things may be beginning to improve.

Confidence is key to the BTL market, and over the last few months big name brands including Paragon and Abbey for Intermediaries have announced the intention to return to BTL. This is driving hopes of impending recovery and while only time will tell the NLA certainly hopes that the market will soon return to strength.”

Simon Zutshi Property Investors Network

“It is very difficult to predict what will happen to UK property prices in 2011. I believe there is real pent up demand from first time buyers and investors who recognise that prices are relatiively low now compared with recent years. This means we could see prices rise but the main challenge is availability of finance and surveyors who still seem to be down valuing many properties. However there is a big chance of a second dip because the banks have repossessed many properties that they have not yet released onto the property market. If these are released onto the market too quickly there may be an over-supply which would cause prices to fall further.

Either way this uncertainty means there is a massive buying opportunity for the educated investor who does not mind short term prices fluctuations. As long as you buy property that gives a positive cash flow now, in an area with strong rental demand, with a long term view, and at the right price, then it is a good time to buy. The key is to know what you are doing.”

Roberta Ward My Property Mentor

“Personally I feel it would be difficult for prices not to drop when you have potential mass job losses on the horizon, together with poor levels of bank lending and a continued interest rate freeze.

Job losses will inevitably lead to some repossessions (unless the banks decide to hang on to them and not release to the market), repos lead to a flood of housing on the market, which generally takes prices down. What we really have right now is a buyers market. The few buyers that are around are able to bargain hard with vendors, also forcing a downward trend. There are not a significant number of investors to take up the slack, as many are to highly leveraged to get further finance.

If interest rates rise this will force many more into repossession because large sections of the market are only surviving due to the low rates. Many can’t refinance either, and selling will be difficult when prices drop leaving them with some tough choices. Much of the recent residential buy to let sector is likely to suffer as investors were careless in mortgaging to high levels of finance.

I suspect we won’t have a ‘crash’ as such, but we will continue in a downward drift month on month until we see what happens when all the cuts and other things going on around property buying and selling really hit home.”

Vanessa Warwick The Property Tribes Investors Forum

“I believe that we are in unchartered waters in property at the moment, and will be for some time.  This is due to the worldwide economic situation, and the fact that, in the U.K., we are facing austerity measures as a result of that.  However, I have always believed in property as a long term investment and I still have 100% confidence in it.  That will never change.  All markets go through cycles, and, if you have positive net cash flow and are not selling anything, you should be able to weather the storm.  Or the hurricane in this case!  I do not see any capital growth outside of London and the South East for several years.  I believe that London and the South East will remain robust with strong rental demand.

My personal strategy for 2011 is to consolidate what we already have, pay down debt, and develop other income streams outside of property.  Our holiday lets continue to perform exceptionally and I will continue to look for holiday lets for acquisition.  I am a great believer in coastal property and think it will increasingly be at a premium.    I will also continue to focus on creating up-market properties that stand out from the crowd.

There is tremendous opportunity in property at the moment for those with cash, and, if I was starting out now, I would focus on buying with deep discounts, adding value by refurbishment, and renting out to professional tenants for the long term.”

David Duckworth Property Networker

“I think property prices will stay stagnant, if not drop slightly in 2011, due to the backlash from the recent mass unemployment and VAT rise in January coupled with the bank lending criteria become increasingly strict.”

Fraser Macdonald Property Fit

“I feel that although there is a small amount of increased demand for NW English investment property that prices will remain flat in 2011. Some reports state that prices are reducing but in my experience this is not the case. It is still a buyer’s market and will continue to be so until 2013. I think that prices have bottomed and that now is a good time to buy. We are seeing yields of up to 10% and this is the level of yield that we experienced before the house price boom of 03/04. Now that most city centre apartment building has stopped and a lot of these flats have been sold the demand for any type of rental property in most areas is high. With rental demand continuing to be strong it continues to be a good time to buy. Even with house prices this low many first time buyers are being priced out of the market with demands from mortgage companies for large deposits, not all first time buyers can rely on the bank of Mum and Dad! This coupled with the very slow house building sector means that property investment is buoyant and will continue to be so.”

Phil Rikards – BM Solutions

“We shouldn’t expect any great changes as we head into 2011. The market will remain broadly stable. We’re on a slow curve and for the majority of next year, we should expect only small movements in house prices. We also expect base rate to remain low for some time.”

Simon Goody My Money Mentor

“My own point of view is that house prices are overpriced and will therefore fall over the next few years.  Income multiples are around x5 plus; deposits required are still high; banks are not lending; commercial toxic debt hasn’t hit yet; issues in the Euro zone remain tenuous to name a few.

My advice is to place yourself in a safe a position as possible.  Use current increased positive cash flows with low rates now to bolster the future increases in rates and possible higher inflation – that way it will ease the burden in the future.”

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Lisa Orme – A Truly Experienced Property Expert – Speaks with PS Investor Services

December 2nd, 2010

Please see below an interview with Lisa Orme from Keys UK Limited – a genuinely experienced investor that is often referred to as the ‘expert’s expert’.  We discuss her history as a professional property investor; the risks of a bottoming market; whether property today is only for the cash rich; newbie investing / entering the market with low cash reserves; no money down in 2011; tips obtaining mortgage finance in a challenging market; improving your credit rating for the buy to let lenders; the FSA’s ‘Mortgage Market Review’; property options / impending regulation; the base rate rise and some advice for highly geared landlords.

1) For those that do not know, can you give our readers a bit of background about yourself? I’m Lisa Orme but you may also see me referred to as Lisa Williams. I can assure you I’m one in the same person! Orme was my maiden name and Williams is my married name. Most people in property circles know me as Orme so I tend to stick to that.  My husband, Stuart and I, started Keys UK Limited almost ten years ago.  We read ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ by Robert Kiyosaki and that was our epiphany moment.  Wanting to ‘get into property’ we started the letting agency working from home in addition to both having full time jobs but quickly realised it was the landlords who were making the money.  So we sold an endowment policy that would never give us the promised returns and used the £40k it gave us to buy a property to refurb. We sold it and made a £40k profit – a 100% return on our investment. We got the property bug and spent the next 8 years or so investing in and developing property in the Midlands.  When the credit crunch hit and things went quiet we started our own mortgage brokerage. A lot of people thought I was completely mad but it’s a brilliant addition to our business strategy and I had no idea how much I would love it.

2) It has become increasingly apparent that the property market is close to the bottom which many people are seeing as an excellent opportunity – but what do you perceive are the main risks? I actually think its got a way to go yet. We still have the fact that the banks have to repay all of their loans, the VAT increase and massive cuts in the public sector which will knock onto the private sector (especially in the construction industry) and affect confidence which will further affect jobs and incomes and ultimately mean people losing their homes thus creating further falls in the market.  That doesn’t mean its not a good time to buy however; prices are low and if you’re either in and out for quick profit or in it for the long haul you can’t go wrong if you buy sensibly.

2) Do you the property investment market today is only for the cash rich? There’s no doubt that cash is king but not in terms of being able to move quickly on deals but in terms of the levels of deposits being demanded by lenders. But that’s not to say that there aren’t ways to buy property without you having the cash yourself and I’m not talking about so called ‘no money down’ schemes.  If you have cash rich joint venture partners then this is a great way to be able to profit from someone else’s cash if they can profit from your knowledge and experience. Partnering together on mortgages is perfectly legitimate way to work together. Buying cash then remortgaging or topping up the difference on bridging then selling or remortgaging are also good and totally legitimate strategies.

3) For newbies – do you think it’s advisable to enter as a property investor without savings or some kind of cash back up fund? Absolutely not.  Even if you fall for a no money down scheme property is still a very cash intensive business. If you have a couple of months void period, a boiler breakdown or what happened to me with one of my first tenants trashing the property leaving £10,000 worth of damage and £6,000 of rent arrears then you’re going to be in trouble!  You should ensure you have several thousand pounds of cash available for these eventualities at the very least. And the more properties the bigger the reserve should be.

4) Should a new investor wish to enter the market with a small amount of cash reserves – what would be your best advice? Ensure you have a back up supply of cash whether that be a JV partner or relative, a credit card or an overdraft. Not that I’d recommend getting into debt other than the mortgage for a property but to go into property with no reserve at all is just crazy.

5) What are your thoughts on no money down in the current market (for example using a secured loan to bridge the deposit and very other strategies being used)? As long as there is full disclosure to the lender of your ACTUAL purchase price then I don’t have problem with it. The problem is none of the schemes I have seen do this and all involve non-disclosure which is potentially mortgage fraud and is being committed by the applicant.  There are lenders that may consider more creative deal structures using borrowed money for deposits, vendor gifts or alternative assets/security being used as the deposit but none of these will be the main buy to let lenders. These will be commercial type lenders that will want to know every aspect of the deal before agreeing to it and probably charge significantly higher rates and fees as a result.

6) As an experienced mortgage finance specialist, do you think the main buy to let lenders will continue to accept these kinds of applications (knowing that investors are leveraging themselves)? Lenders DON’T accept these type of applications at all. They are submitted subversively. Lenders are duped into believing the client is paying x for a property when they are in fact paying y. If the lender was informed (as per their terms and conditions) of the ACTUAL purchase price then they will most likely refuse the case completely but at best only lend based on the ACTUAL purchase price.

7) In terms of obtaining mortgage finance, what would be your suggestions for an investor to improve their positions in the eyes of the buy to let lenders? A good credit score is only half the story and I’m fully aware of people with over 900 on their credit files failing and those with much lower scores passing.  Lenders will be looking at your score and your credit profile combined as well as a number of other factors. Any one of these alone may not have that dramatic an impact but combine two or more and you could find yourself being rejected by lenders:-

  • Ensure you are on the electoral roll;
  • Avoid moving house frequently – the ideal is one address covering the last 3 years;
  • Keep your current bank account clean; by this I mean avoid late charges, going over overdraft limits, ensure you have plenty of credits and debits on a regular basis and that they all get paid;
  • Ensure you have at least one utility bill in your name – there’s a tendency for one adult to take responsibility for all bills in many households but this can work against you so put them in joint names or split them between you;
  • Watch those credit cards and loans – even if you have never missed a payment lots of unsecured debts will adversely affect your applications;
  • Similarly if you have lots of credit cards and aren’t using them cancel a few – lots of available unsecured debt can have the same detrimental affect;
  • NEVER miss a mortgage payment – unless you have a very good reason for this and the evidence to back it up this will certainly result in a declined application;
  • Avoid missing credit card and loan payments – the odd one over several years is unlikely to have that bad an effect but lots of them or a regular habit of missed payments will mean no.

It’s not true that those with large portfolios can’t borrow as many of my clients could testify and given we are extremely busy with everyone from brand new investors through to investors with multimillion pound portfolios I know lenders are still lending and clients are still borrowing!

8)Can investors and landlords expect to feel the effects of the FSA ‘Mortgage Market Review’? The Mortgage Market Review is primarily concerned with residential mortgages but we are seeing lenders be overly cautions for example self cert was only mooted as being targeted by the FSA but in order to pre-empt the FSA hatchet the lenders just withdrew from self cert and there is now no self cert residential mortgages available at all!  There are rumours about banning interest only mortgages and there are many buy to let investors rightly concerned about this but again it is very unlikely to apply to buy to let and more likely we will only see changes in residential lending and already have.  The impact is therefore that lenders pull the plug prematurely and withdraw from problem areas or areas that they see as requiring more effort. Buy to let is certainly one of those areas which is why we are left with so few lenders. And those that are left tightening criteria and reducing lending levels.  But there are some new players too and likely to be more in the coming few years so all is not lost for buy to let; on the contrary I think the future holds great promise.

9) You are very well known for your understanding of property options – what would be your advice to people looking into this strategy for the short to medium term future? Short would be the operative word for me. We will now only do option deal where there is a very defined and relatively short term exit ideally under 12 months.  A perfect example might be a redemption penalty situation; the clients can sell for say £120k which suits you if it were not for a redemption penalty that adds an additional £6,000 to the debt and finishes the deal for you both. This is a perfect example of where I would use an option to seal the deal, let out the property and then complete on the purchase when the redemption penalty expires.  The clients have moved on, there’s a clear and defined exit and they will be motivated to complete on the deal.

Too many lease option deals are being done where debts are involved and often the sellers get sellers remorse once you have taken away the immediate pain. I am aware of many investors who have lost a lot of money on options that they will never get to complete on because the owner has refused to exercise the option. Taking these to court is a waste of time and money.

10) With the increased media attention options have receiving this year – can we expect to see regulation come into play (as with sell and rent back a few years ago)? This is extremely likely and the FSA already have their eye on these.  It’s not going to happen just yet as with sale and rent back it will be when a number of cases are highlighted in the press or to organisations such as Shelter. This is not likely to come about until we see a wave of repossessions when interest rates rise or when house prices go up.  In the former case investors who have taken on properties due to a low rate on the underlying mortgage will find their cashflow stretched and will walk away (as the option legally though not morally allows them to do) leaving the ‘seller’ in the lurch and probably not realising that this could happen.

In the case of house prices most investors are only going to want to exercise the option when house prices have gone up sufficiently to make it worth their while. At this point seller remorse kicks in and the seller realises how much equity they’re giving up. A quick call to citizen’s advice or their solicitor to check on the validity of these agreements or going to ground will prevent many investors being able to exercise their options.

The real concern comes where there are also tenant buyers who may have paid deposits that investors have spent and/or paid higher rents expecting those to be credited towards their home.  I’ve already seen several examples of investors heading towards bankruptcy and tenant buyers being unaware that their money is lost and option worthless.  It is when all this starts to unravel we will see regulatory changes; all too late of course but the fallout has the potential to be huge and to damage the industry further.

11) What is your advice to people who maybe on tracker / variable rates and are concerned about the eventual base rate rise? Assume rates are going to rise! It would be unwise to get comfortable on the current low rates.  Preparation is key; it’s no good when rates rise saying ‘I never saw that coming’!  If that means selling some or even all of your properties then do it! If it also means not buying any more and consolidating them so be it.

12) And – for the highly geared landlord concerned about the slow recovery of house prices – would you be able to provide some potential risk mitigation strategies? There are a number of things landlords can do but they all involve assessing the situation and getting real with yourself – there’s no quick fix once you have decided to bury your head in the sand. Some suggestions include:

  • Getting a job!
  • Expanding your services – manage property deals or refurbishments for other investors;
  • Curb your spending (personal and property) – if that means getting rid of the sports car or downsizing your home so be it;
  • Budget and monitor your expenses like a hawk;
  • Improve cashflow – can you increase your rents? Can you offer added incentives or a new fixed term tenancy? Can you let to LHA tenants (although be careful of the changes next year)?;
  • Manage your properties yourself to reduce management and letting fees;
  • Convert single lets to Houses of Multiple Occupation (HMOs);
  • Remortgage – whilst many people are on low base rate trackers, I’m constantly surprised by how many aren’t. Speak to your mortgage adviser about the current products on offer – you may surprised at how low some of the rates actually are and with LTVs up to 80%, things aren’t as bad as many make out;
  • Refinance – it may be better to pull out some cash as a reserve for tougher times now than not be able to later.  Don’t spend it of course but placed in a decent savings account, it may help you out if times get tough;
  • Insure against rate rises – it’s possible to take out an insurance policy to hedge against rate rises. You simply determine when you want the insurance to kick in and they’ll cover the payments over and above that point. Its nowhere near as expensive as investors believe it to be, for example: to cover £1,000,000 worth of interest only mortgages 2% beyond where they currently are (e.g. current rate 2.5% so insurance will pay anything over 4.5%) will cost just £262 a month;
  • Finally do talk to your lender even if you haven’t missed any payments yet. They don’t want to repossess, especially not in the current market. If they can help they will, and will help you do a portfolio review, determine a strategy going forward and a ‘what if’ should the worst happen.

For mortgage advice and information contact Lisa at lisa@keys-mortgages.com or call 024 7617 0096; please mention PSI.

You can also get updates on new products and services, financing tips and advice at www.twitter.com/keysmortgages and property investor updates and tips at www.twitter.com/lisaorme

The above is for information purposes only; rates can change and may not be applicable at the time of publication. Please consult appropriate professionals and contact us for up to date quotations. Keys (UK) Limited is an Appointed Representative of Julian Harris Mortgages Ltd. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of mortgage and general insurance business with FSA No. 304155. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on a mortgage or other loan secured on it. Think carefully before securing other debts against your home. Buy to let (pure) and commercial mortgages are not regulated by the FSA.

For full details of our terms, fees and disclosures please go to the Keys Mortgages website at www.keys-mortgages.com

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Birmingham Midshires on Buy To Let Mortgage Lending in 2010/11

November 18th, 2010

Further to our previous interview with Paul Howard from the Mortgage Works, we were very pleased to be able to ask BM Solutions some questions on the current market place.  The company has been very well established in buy to let for almost 2 decades (with a current 40 percent market share) and has remained in a solid position despite the obvious difficulties that have occurred over the last few years. We talked to head of sales Phil Rickards on a range of topics including the company’s history; confidence levels amongst lenders; BM Solution’s short / medium / long term strategy; risks from a BTL lending perspective; new FSA regulations (the Mortgage Market Review); the BTL lender-borrower relationship moving forward and the future of new build property.

1) Can you talk through the history of BM Solutions in the buy to let market? We have been established in the sector for many years now. Personally, I have been with the company for 18 years and witnessed a change from what was once a building society with less than 1 percent share of the mortgage market into an Intermediary dedicated BTL Lender accounting for around 40 percent of total lending in the buy to let sector alongside our House 2 House proposition ,which is basically a 2nd property and self build scheme.

2) Why was the decision made to focus specifically on buy to let? It’s where our strength has always been.  We did, in the past, lend in other sectors such as self-cert and subprime but the majority of our business has always been in the BTL sector – and it’s where we always saw the future of BM Solutions.  Indeed, we have remained fully committed to the UK BTL market despite the current tough economic conditions.

3) Do you think there is generally more confidence in the buy to let lending market despite some recent drops? The credit crunch has obviously had a massive effect on the property market in general – for our buy to lending levels the situation is no different.  For 2010, the BTL market should account for around £10 billion of mortgage lending whereas, at its peak, a few years back it was at £47 billion.  Despite this, there is definitely more confidence appearing in the market with our own research telling us that BTL borrowers are taking a longer term view of investment than was perhaps seen before – our research has pointed to people looking at between 15 to 20 years.  Today, what the market needs more is some healthy competition and it’s great to see some new lenders or previous lenders in the sector returning.  This has got to be good news for landlords.

4) Looking back to the onset of the credit crunch a few years ago – do you think, on a general level, that buy to let was taken far too lightly by lenders in general? Talking from BMS’s perspective, we have never taken buy to let too lightly – we have always stated clearly that it should be treated as a long term investment and landlords / borrowers really must do their homework before entering.  The days of entering the market for fast profits have gone. Of all the lenders, we have remained totally committed to this sector and, whilst this has been difficult in the current economic climate, we will remain steadfast.  It’s fair to say that we have had to make criteria changes to ensure that we continue to support the sector. The market has changed dramatically so we have adapted our proposition in line with the new conditions to ensure that we continue to lend responsibly.

5) From a lending perspective – what do you see as the main risks as the country begins its slow recovery? The main risk is that the recovery is not going to be quick. Lenders and borrowers, need to maintain awareness that recovery is going to be a long and drawn out process.  As for BM’s target market, there is a solid bank of mortgage intermediaries who have come through the financial crisis and remain in the sector for the long term offering professional mortgage advice to new and existing Landlords.

6) Where do you see the key areas of growth in terms of your own buy to let lending procedures? As I mentioned, like any other lender, we have had to revise how we operate in the market. For 2011 specifically we are in good shape.  We feel confident about entering the year with a consistent proposition which I think the market needs.

7) Do you see higher deposits as something that will remain for the medium term future? I think it’s important to manage landlords’ expectations and certainly as far as BM Solutions is concerned, we have no plans in the short term (ie. 2011) to change criteria, particularly with regards to loan to values.  That’s not to say that they will not change in the future but I can easily see 2011 remaining level in line with our present criteria.

8)What are your thoughts on the new rules being established by FSA including the of banning self-certification mortgages, tough affordability, income verification checks and other detailed borrow analysis procedures that lenders would have to carry out under its Mortgage Market Review? If we talk specifically about buy to let, in terms of the way a lender behaves – most operate by looking at rental assessments.  We have used this methodology since we started lending in the buy to let sector and are confident about its ability to provide us with an accurate picture of loan security.  The new criteria being stipulated by the FSA is still very much in consultation stages, and we’ll have to wait and see what the final impacts are.

9) Do you think the new rules will semi-paralyse the industry as is being debated at the moment? We’ll have to wait and see what the new rules are before making any predictions on the impact. However, it seems that the aim is to instil a more meticulous case analysis procedure and ensure that borrowers have the capacity to be able to handle their commitments.  Borrowers should have nothing to worry about as long as the income they provide is correct and can be substantiated.  We’re committed to ensuring any changes balance the long term health of the industry.

10) If rental assessments remain as your main criteria for analysis, what about when occasional volatile movements happen – as has been seen in some local marketplaces in the last few years? We stick to a tried and tested rental calculation and we have a team of professionally trained surveyors who will analyse the figures before we agree to lend.  We have no concerns over this methodology and this has been part of our in-house procedures since we commenced lending in the buy to let sector. It’s a dynamic processes, we’ll continue to make changes as and when they’re necessary.

11) How do you think the balance can be struck between lending that is too expansive (as prior to the credit crunch) versus being highly restrictive (as debatably what is occurring now)? It’s very easy to confuse really stifled criteria with the fact that there is a considerable shortage of funding for lenders themselves.  We as a lender only operate in a very different funding environment to days gone by and, equally, we have a duty to lend responsibly and prudently.  From our perspective, as I mentioned, above we have a considerable market share already so it’s fair to say that we’re doing our bit but, yes, the more lenders that come on to the market, the better.  We are continually reviewing our policy, ensuring we meet evolving market conditions – such as new ways of innovating and keeping the market fresh.  In November, for example, we had a 7 day ‘mortgage sale’ – something we hadn’t done before offering some extremely good products for a limited time period. This was a huge success.  This is just an example of the fact that we want to demonstrate to landlords that there is a desire to lend whilst being mindful of the fact that the market has changed.

12) Do you think there is going to be reluctance on the part of lenders to enter the marketplace in the coming years?  There is a growing confidence amongst the buy to let sector – particularly due to the fact that there is growing demand for rented accommodation which will undoubtedly continue.  Whilst mortgage market criteria in a general level remains tight, more people will look to rent so it is certainly not all doom and gloom for both lenders and landlords.

13) What is your attitude towards new build lending – particularly in light of the ongoing situation of low supply? There’s clearly been a change in this sector of the market and it’s been a tough one.  Buy to let still does not remain reliant on new build but then there is also the fact that new housing is clearly required in the UK.  There has been an over-supply of new build apartments which remains a problem due to low activity levels in the housing market on a general level.  As the market matures again, we’ll keep reviewing our criteria to see if things can change.  We have a specific housing development team at Lloyds Banking Group who play an important part in managing the relationship between Lender and Housing Developer.  This is a role which is expected to expand as confidence in this market segment increases.

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November Property Investor Factsheet

November 4th, 2010

November 2010 Property Investors Factsheet (free membership required)

The base interest rate remained at a record low of 0.5 percent (the longest period since World War 2), with one dissenter – Andrew Sentence – continuing to vote for a marginal rate rise to control inflationary pressures (no further quantitative easing will take place for the time being).  The UK´s gross domestic product rose by 0.8 percent in the third quarter and former Bank of England official Deanne Julius stated that chances of a further recessionary dip occurring were ´10 percent or less.´ However, Chancellor George Osborne stated the economy still faced a ‘choppy’ outlook and, whilst several have stated the case against the £81 billion of public spending cuts, he remained firm on the plan insisting that the Coalition would reduce inflation via the means of robust fiscal and monetary policy.

House prices, as predicted by many, have witnessed monthly drops apart from a reported 3.10 percent increase stated by Rightmove (based on asking prices).  According to the Land Registry, the biggest drops in the last month have been in the West Midlands by 1.4 per cent, followed closely by a 1 per cent fall in the East Midlands pushing the regions average prices to £128,646.  The index also indicated that London average values had fallen by 0.6 percent to £340,344.  Property portal Zoopla stated that the number of properties for sale in the UK that have seen at least one house price reduction has climbed by more than 13% over the past three months – with Manchester seeing an average of a 7.15 percent reduction in prices; Newcastle with 7.13 percent and Milton Keynes with 7.04 percent.  The general sentiment remains that house prices look set to drop further due to lower demand and a larger amount of properties hitting the market.  Such drops are not expected to be rapid due to both the low bank base rate and an increased amount of competitive product availability.

A financial adviser confidence tracker report by Paragon Mortgages illustrated that the availability of buy to let mortgages in the UK has improved.  43 percent of surveyed mortgage brokers said that the number of available deals Q3 2010 has risen. Another 38 percent said they have not noticed any changes in the number of mortgage deals for property investors / landlords, and 19 percent of respondents said the number of available loans fell.  The survey also found that 58 percent expect the situation not to change as 2010 draws to a close, whereas 35% expect it to get better. The remaining 7% think the availability of buy to let mortgages will decline.  In terms of notable products, the Mortgage Works are the only lender offering 80 percent loan to value (with a 5.89 pay rate fixed until the end of 2013) and the Bank of China are offering a one year variable with a very competitive pay rate of 3.88 percent (1 year variable with a 75 percent loan to value).

In other landlord related news, as figures published the Office of National Statistics reported the one in eight Brits are living in a workless household entirely reliant on benefits – the British Property Federation (BPF) requested the Conservative peer and former investment banker Lord Freud to retract a claim that property owners increasing their rents was the main factor in creating a higher welfare bill for the taxpayer.  Its analysis of figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) shows rising average payments in the private sector accounted for around 13.2 per cent of the growth in housing benefit costs.  According to the BPF, by comparison, 70 percent of the rise was attributed to new claimants coming into the system, mainly because of unemployment linked to the recession.  Lord Freud also recently responded to critics of housing benefit reforms as “scaremongering” insisting the cuts would not lead to a substantial increase in homelessness, stating: “it’s immensely unhelpful when people and commentators stir up fears using somewhat arbitrary figures about potential homelessness because it frightens people. We are not expecting any significant increase in homelessness as a result of these changes and are expecting a large number of people who see less housing benefit to be able to negotiate their rents downwards.”

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The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) on the 2010 / 2011 Market for Property Investors

October 20th, 2010

Essentially an organisation that sees the growth of the housing finance as fundamental to the sustained recovery of the market, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) are continually influential on government policy making and are an important organisation for property investors to be aware of.  We were therefore very pleased to be able to speak to spokesman Bernard Clarke on a range of topics including the recent drop in house prices demonstrated by the Halifax; homeownership trends in the UK; the importance of the buy to let market; the BTL lending landscape moving forward into 2011; buy to let regulation / professionalism; new build lending; the implications of the low bank base rate; future inflationary pressures; some advice for new property investors amongst others.

1) Many economists and commentators were surprised to see the larger than expected dip from the Halifax property price index recently – what were/are your thoughts? Over the last couple of years we’ve given up on forecasting house prices due to the fact that there has been so much uncertainty in the aftermath of the credit crunch, both in terms of the implications for the housing market, and the extent and scale of the policy response to get the country out of its problems.  In addition, there are a small number of transactions which simply adds to difficulty of measuring house prices effectively.  Demand is weak for all sorts of reasons, such as a shortage of mortgage finance, a lack of confidence by buyers and there is a shortage of new property coming into the market which, we feel, makes price predictions even more difficult.  In short, we have no plans to return to predicting house prices.

2) How important does the CML view the buy-to-let market in relation to the UK’s housing industry from a long term perspective? We think it’s very important – the whole market is made up of three forms of tenure: owner-occupier, social housing and the private rented sector.  The Survey of English Housing showed that over the last 8 years of so home-ownership has declined from 71 percent to 68 percent.  Clearly there are pressures in the funding and supply of social housing sector – so the best option for meeting housing needs in the medium term is through the private rented sector, and the buy to let market has a very important role in meeting this demand.

3) Do you think the UK general public’s passion for home ownership is waning? We have just published research that shows that it is not the case.  Over a long period of time, we have asked people about their aspirations to be homeowners with the question “would you like to be a homeowner 10 years from now?” When we asked  again recently, we came back with the highest ever positive response to that question – even prior to the credit crunch – at 80 percent.  Short-term responses to the question have taken a dip, which we believe is due to what is happening in the housing market at the moment and the uncertainty towards the market on a general level.

4) As 2010 begins drawing to a close – where do you see the position of the main buy-to-let lenders moving forward into 2011, particularly when compared to prior to the credit crunch? Whilst we have had some very encouraging recent announcements from lenders such as Paragon and The Mortgage Works, who are looking to continue their expansion in the buy to let market, we expect the sector to be affected by the same issues as with the mainstream market – with the prominent one being a lack of funding.

5) Can we expect to see any major changes in the buy-to-let lending landscape in the near future? It is difficult to predict this, particularly in the current absence of funding, but, as far as lenders moving in and out of the market or launching new products, that is in the hands of individual firms and we do not know what their plans may be.  As a trade body, we work to create the best environment for lenders to operate within – but it is up to them how they want to make their commercial pitch.

6) Do you feel that there are enough professional standards within the buy-to-let sector? Yes, much of the evidence of the buy to let sector has pointed to improved standards in terms of choice, availability and quality of privately rented housing provision.

7) What are your thoughts on regulation of the buy to let industry? We have made it clear that we are not convinced about this.  There may be a need to look at the main causes of problems within the buy to let sector – this, however, is more about people’s decisions to invest in property rather than taking out a mortgage in order to do so.

8)It was recently announced that the CML will be joining forces with the NLA – why was this decision made? We work with all parties, agencies and representative bodies with an interest in the sector.  There is, as such, no specific plan for our work with the NLA – the objective is more to form a union of bodies representing the ever-changing agenda of the UK housing industry.

9) How do you feel about the current level of property investment / landlord education that exists at the moment? If you look at the evidence that may point to bad property investment education, it would be worth examining repossession / delinquency statistics – the buy to let sector is comparable with the mainstream mortgage market which would suggest that most investors and landlords are making the right kinds of decisions.

10) In terms of the lending on new build properties, many lenders we speak to remain aversive – either applying a stringent criteria or refusing to lend at all.  As long term indicators are pointing to an undersupply of housing in the UK – how long will this last for? Lenders are taking a risk averse approach to all types of transactions in the market at the moment – not solely for new builds – and where there are issues of over-supply and valuation, they are looking particularly keenly at the security of the loan.  We don’t expect any change in the housing finance environment.  WE have tried to create greater transparency by working on improved disclosure of incentives by developers (discounts and other transactional related benefits) – which has often occurred in regional markets where there is an over-supply of property.  What the lender needs is to have a clear understanding of the exact nature of the transaction and to make a decision accordingly.  We hope this transparency will help build confidence in the sector for everybody – uncertainty in an environment like this is not helpful.

11) Readers would be aware that the CML regularly announces repossession statistics – would you be able to provide a broad based forecast for the next 5 years on repossessions? I’m afraid we can’t!  One of the main reasons for this is the uncertainty we’ve already discussed which makes us reluctant to forecast too far ahead.  In the past we have predicted arrears two years ahead and have then revised our figures.  Whilst things are perhaps looking a little bit more stable now, the market since 2007 has been generally unstable and we have policy intervention on a large scale and a new government.  What we will be doing is looking at market forecasts towards the end of the year (for 2011) taking into account of the Comprehensive Spending Review and its implications.

12) Late last month Credit Action announced that some £10.9 billion worth of loans (both secured and unsecured) had been written off – do you expect to see this as a continuing pattern – and how will it affect the future of the secured loans market? Again, we will not be forecasting arrears until the end of the year.  I suspect the main reason why arrears have been kept in check is the very low interest rates, and also unemployment has not risen as high as many commentators feared – although there may be more uncertainty about that in the aftermath of the Comprehensive Spending Review.

13) With the UK base rate being historically low and many property owners benefiting from this fact, do you think the housing market is experiencing a calm before the storm? You could almost say it is a ‘calm after the storm’ due to the fact that we have a very low level of transactions and subdued levels of lending activity in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008.  We do not expect to see any significant change in overall market direction in the months ahead.  When we finalise our forecasts for 2011, we will be looking ahead over 12 months to see if there are any changes to be expected.

14) In terms of the inflationary concerns that will mount sooner or later and there will have to be a base rate increase – how do you see the change then? Our study on negative equity concluded that approximately 900,000 people with the large majority having less than £10,000.  Within a few months of completing that analysis, however, house prices had begun to rise again and, in the spring of this year, we revised our figures to around 600,000.  There is still potential volatility in the marketplace and, therefore, it’s still difficult to predict the number of people who will be in negative equity.  Nevertheless, as long as homeowners are in negative equity but are still+ able to pay their mortgage – that should not create a problem.  The outlook for interest rates is that they will stay low – and when they do rise, most commentators believe it will be at a slow and gradual pace.

15) In terms of lenders working with borrowers more – that seems to be more commonplace in attempt to resolve issues better, would you agree? There has been a concerted effort for lenders to minimise the impact, which borrowers have responded well to – for example by making lenders aware of any payment difficulties they may be having, which gives everyone the best chance of working to a solution the suits the client’s individual circumstances.  The government has helped with measures to support homeowners in difficulty – but we’ve already seen a cut in the rate of support for mortgage interest from 6.08 percent to 3.63 percent. The qualification period for income support for mortgage interest was reduced by the last government from 39 to 13 weeks (which previously caused considerable arrears to accumulate).  We would urge the coalition government to keep these measurements in place – although there are costs there are also significant savings, such as the cost of re-housing people as a result of repossession.

16) What would be your advice to new property investors looking at entering the market in the next few years? The evidence from our arrears and repossession statistics suggests that the decisions made by property investors are broadly the right ones.  We will continue to see opportunities for investors to make the right kind of acquisitions but funding is clearly going to be a constraint in the buy to let sector, as it is in the mainstream mortgage market.

17) What is the ‘MICE’ event being run by the CML and how can readers find out more? MICE stands for the Mortgage Industry Conference and Exhibition which we hold annually.  The day will see a  debate  around a number of key issues in mortgage lending and housing markets, with contributions by some excellent speakers.  Please click on the following link for more information.

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The British Property Federation on the Current Buy to Let Market

October 14th, 2010

As one of the leading and influential bodies on the UK housing market, the British Property Federation has some of the country´s most prominent organisations and institutions as members.  Please see an interview below with spokesman Patrick Clift where we discuss a variety of issues related to the private rented sector including the importance of landlords post-credit crunch; the need of professional standards in the industry; what the BPF are doing to encourage the sector; tax incentives; reforms to the Local Housing Allowance (LHA) system / social housing policy; UK infrastructual improvements and the future role of the organisation.

1) Can you outline the essential role of the British Property Federation (BPF)?  The British Property Federation is a membership organisation devoted to representing the interests of all those involved in property ownership and investment.  We aim to create the conditions in which the property industry can grow and thrive, for the benefit of our members and of the economy as a whole.  BPF have three objectives. Firstly, to raise the profile of the property industry with political stakeholders, the media, and the public. Second, to improve legislative, fiscal and regulatory conditions that affect our industry and so enhance the benefits the industry can bring to the UK. And third, to encourage best practice within the industry as a means of increasing long term value and improving stakeholder perception.

2) Who are some of your main recognised members?  Among our largest and most active members are Allsop, Argent Group, Bank of Scotland Corporate Banking, Big Yellow Group, The British Land Company, Cadogan Estates, CB Richard Ellis, Credit Suisse, Crown Estate, Derwent London, Development Securities, Dorrington, Grainger, Great Portland Estates, Grosvenor, Hammerson, Jones Lang LaSalle, Land Securities Group, Legal & General Property, Lend Lease, Miller Developments, Morgan Stanley, Segro and Westfield Group.

3) How important does the BPF see the role of landlords in the future of the housing industry?  The private rented sector has provided 1.1m additional families with a home since 2000, accounting for nearly all housing growth in that time. However, with almost 5m people languishing on council waiting lists it is clear that more new homes are needed. The private rented sector is vital to delivering flexible tenure for a mobile workforce and providing housing where social renting or home ownership is not applicable or affordable.

4) Do you think that there are enough professional standards within the buy-to-let sector?  The government recently decided against regulation of the private rented sector, and we would agree with ministers that rather than introducing new powers, local authorities have got to show they can better use what already exists.

5) What kind of actions are you taking to encourage the private rented sector?  The BPF has promoted the sector every step of the way – increasing its profile, establishing it as a key sub-sector of the housing market and devising policy solutions to increase investment in it.  The BPF is in dialogue with the department for Communities and Local Government, the Treasury and the Homes and Communities Agency to promote PRS and change policies to help encourage institutional investors.   Earlier this year, as part of the Property Industry Alliance, we produced a joint consultation response with the Council of Mortgage Lenders and the Association of Real Estate Funds into a Treasury consultation into increasing investment in the private rented sector.

6) You have long lobbied for tax incentives – particularly for the institutional investor – what kind of progress has been made?  Disappointingly, the new government has decided not to pursue this. The BPF has long argued that a simple and relatively cheap tax incentive would be to disaggregate stamp duty land tax on the bulk purchase of homes. At present, an investor has to pay SDLT on the total cost of a portfolio, as much as 5%, even if the homes would only have been charged at 1% if bought individually.

7) In terms of the recent changes that were put in place to limit the levels of Local Housing Allowance (LHA) receipts – with the government saying that one of the main reasons is to encourage people to get back into the employment market.  With the economy in the state its in, how realistic do you think this is?  Do you think the problems are going to be exacerbated?  We agree that the housing benefit system is in need of reform. However, the government seems to assume that all claimants are long-term and need incentives to return to work, when in fact many have lost their jobs recently as a result of the last recession. By contrast, we would argue that the welfare system should seek to support a person remaining in their home in the early stages of unemployment because that will greatly assist their ability to quickly find another job.

A major issue will be linking housing benefit rises to CPI, rather RPI at present. Over the past decade rents have risen at about 4.5% per annum. CPI on the other hand, is the explicit focus of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, which has a target to maintain it at 2% per annum.  This will have a devastating effect. The mismatch between 2 and 4.5% will be that the pool of property notionally available to claimants will be constantly being eroded by the diminishing purchasing power of their benefit.

The Chartered Institute of Housing analysed the long term effect of this change for different property sizes. They conclude that in some areas, within two years of the change coming into effect, it is projected that no properties will be available that can be fully paid for with LHA.  The consequences are stark. Either that household will build up rent arrears which consequently might lead to eviction, or they must cut back on income intended for other necessities.

8)Related to this – statistics have proven the country’s ongoing demand for social housing – but how are property buyers attracted to this sector to be encouraged with the government imposing stricter rules (such as the increase in LHA)?  Powers exist to open up social housing for private investment, particularly by pension funds and other institutions, and that is something that we would be keen to explore with government.

9) On a general level – what about the infrastructural development of the UK (roads, city regeneration, transport) – what can investors expect to see in the coming years?  Tax increment financing, an innovative method of funding that the BPF has campaigned for since 2005, was adopted as policy at the Liberal Democrat conference last month. This is fantastic news for the provision of new infrastructure, particularly in areas where new infrastructure is needed for property development to go ahead. TIF allows councils to forward-fund infrastructure through prudential borrowing. The loan is then re-paid through the business rates generated by the development unlocked by the new infrastructure. It is a very elegant solution, and if done property will cost tax-payers nothing.

10) What kinds of plans does the BPF have in the short-medium term future of interest to property investors?  We will continue to lobby for the private rented sector – both for new investment and against the more damaging aspects of housing benefit reform. The BPF will continue to work with government to create a “local” planning system that works, and to promote ways in which central and local government can use public sector assets as a catalyst for regeneration and renewal.

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October Property Investor Factsheet

October 7th, 2010

October 2010 Property Investors Factsheet (free membership required)

As it was decided that the UK bank base rate will remain at 0.5 percent, further disagreement was seen amongst Monetary Policy Committee members – not only from Andrew Sentance (who has called for a 0.25 percent increase for some time) but also Adam Posen, an internationally respected expert on Japan’s ‘lost decade’, suggested that more, not less, monetary stimulus was needed: “it is right for both long-term stability and short-term performance for central banks to do more now…”

Halifax’s September report of a 3.6 percent monthly drop as a ‘beginning of a sustained period of declining house prices’ was described by Howard Archer of Global insight as ’shocking’: “while a drop in house prices always seemed probable in September after Halifax had reported price rises in August and July that conflicted with other surveys, a plunge of of this size was off everybody’s radar.”  The RICS Housing Survey this month also showed only 7 percent of surveyors seeing a rise in prices (compared to last months 11 percent) and 38 percent seeing falls (compared to 25 percent last month).  A survey by Zoopla reported that homeowner confidence had fallen amid concerns over the availability of mortgage finance:  63 percent of homeowners now expect property prices to rise over the next six months, compared to 78 percent of homeowners in June.  However, positive news for property investors was announced by ARLA (Association of Residential Lettings Agents) that the number of tenants seeking rental properties has reached an eight year high – demand is highest in the south east of England where 81 percent of agents reported that there are more tenants than properties compared to 67 percent in the rest of the UK and 73 percent in Central London.  A Markit / CIPS survey of construction industry purchasing managers showed an unexpected pick in the level of activity – although doubts remained as to how demand will fare in the next few months.

The lending markets have also seen some encouraging signs with Legal & General (in its third quarter adviser confidence index) reporting that 85 percent of advisers predicting that business will improve or at least stay the same over the next 3 months despite the current undertone of negativity.  Buy to let product wise, the Mortgage Works (TMW) have positively revised their product range – sending us the following information:

  • New one and two-year tracker mortgages at 70 percent LTV, with rates starting at 3.39 percent;
  • A two-year fixed rate option with 0 percent arrangement fee now available at up to 70 percent LTV;
  • The expansion of the longer term product range with the introduction of a four-year fixed rate (up to 75 percent LTV) and a five-year fixed rate (up to 80 percent LTV);
  • The introduction of a £1,000 cashback option for HMO applications;

… as well as some enhancements to the buy to let range including:

  • One-year fixed and tracker remortgages options at 70 percent LTV, now available at 3.99 percent, with free standard valuation and standard legal fees;
  • Tracker rates improved by up to 0.15 percent across the range;
  • A free standard valuation option available for house purchase customers when they select: TMW’s two-year fixed rate mortgage at 60 percent LTV with a 0 percent arrangement fee;
  • Significant rate improvements across all HMO and Limited Company products.

The Bank of China have continued to seek a wider share of the UK buy-to-let market with a 1 year 75 percent LTV product with a 4.1 percent payrate.  Cuts have also been seen in the broader residential lending – for example by HSBC (with a reduction of 0.4 percent on all its 80 percent LTV mortgage products) and Lloyds TSB (with the introduction of a 70 percent LTV fixed rate with interest at 3.39 percent).

In related news, despite marginal growth last month, a survey of 400 agencies by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG pointed to an increased risk of a ‘double dip’.  Kevin Green, the REC’s chief executive, stated to the FT: “I think the labour market is in for a real bumpy ride – unemployment, currently 2.47m or 7.8 percent of the workforce, could rise again to 2.7m by the middle of next year.”

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