Please see below some quotes of the leading UK property related company owners and investors on their thoughts for the coming year. We would like to thank all who participated and would encourage readers to click on to their websites to find out more about their services:
James Davis – Upad
“We’re expecting continued downward pressure on property prices due to lack of available financing – though of course this will hit some areas of the country much harder than others. Limits on LTV and product fees are prohibitive for many buyers right now and this isn’t likely to change over the next 12 months.
Because of the slow sales market, we’re expecting to see the rise again of the “accidental landlord” – people who need to move but can’t sell their property. Fortunately for them, demand in the rental market is likely to remain exceptionally strong. We won’t be surprised to see rent increases of 10% or more over the next year, and in some areas potentially even more. While restricted lending is hampering many property investors, those landlords who do have access to cash are likely to see yields increase significantly.”
Julie Hanson – Just do Property
“So what does 2011 have in store for UK house prices? Well that is the ultimate question we all want the answer to. Across the board we are back to prices from the same time last year, approximately 2.5% below the highs seem during the year.
The general consensus from the key House Price Index organisations seems to be a fairly flat market with some downward pressure due to the uncertainty with the economy and also investors will to wait longer to snap up good deals. With the general view that interest rates will continue to remain low in 2011 helping to ward off loan defaults and repossessions – this in turn should help keep any further fall in prices to a minimum. Of course regionally the picture is different and we may see stronger falls in some areas with increases in others.”
Parmdeep Vadesha – The Property Tycoon Method
“2011 will be an exciting year for property investors… Tougher access to finance and continued downbeat media coverage will deter all but the creative and prepared investors who will be cleaning up while the unprepared worry about property prices, problem tenants or some other aspect of property investment that can be easily managed in reality. Property is a long term investment vehicle and should be approached sensibly with a sound long term strategy.”
Rob Moore – Progressive Property
“A ‘lost generation’ of first time buyers [FTB’s] who can’t get on the housing ladder will force down the values of properties, but landlords will benefit from record rents, high demand, shrinking void periods, and low interest rates which are set to stay the same throughout 2011. Lenders are catching on to the levels of increased rental demand and the likes of Paragon and larger groups like Santander will show a greater interest in landlords next year by taking on new business. The question arises should you jump on the buy to let bandwagon? We will definitely witness a backlog of repossessions through into the New Year, which will be very attractive to professional investors. Although we will not see any capital growth for some time to come, and prices are looking to stay depressed until 2012, strong rents, higher yields [cashflow] and more negotiable sellers making bigger discounts are already and will continue to become a reality, even to novice investors. Estate Agents need you more and are more motivated to offer you deals that wouldn’t have seen the window 4 years ago
Although it may still be tricky to get access to finance with fewer mortgages available now than at the height of the boom, this should not deter you from investing. Access to Joint Venture [JV] and Private Investor [PI] finance has never been as liquid: keen to protect the value of their cash and to replace the loss of interest income, many see injecting their cash into a buy-to-let property a better return on investment [ROI]. See my latest article by clicking here.
The “Own nothing, control everything strategy” will become far more common place in 2011, with a greater degree of investors trading options, monetising on their reject deals [DP], and earning more passively with a greater degree of opportunities
Yes we will see a fall in house prices, yes lending will still be scrappy, and this should be you’re OPPORTUNITY to invest like a true Contrarian [Warren Buffett, George Soros] and buy at the right price, enjoy the healthy cash flow, monetise different property related revenue streams [without the need for a mortgage]. Be patient and wait for the cyclical nature of the property cycle to rise, where your capital appreciation will return to heights in the future, like 2001 – 2007”
Gary Murphy – Allsop Auction House
“We ended 2010 on a high note with a £45.7m residential auction selling 85% of all lots offered. The sale brings the residential sales total for the year to £335m and 88% from 2089 lots (2009 £330m and 87% from 2049 lots). In spite of the gloomy economic background, it’s encouraging to see that buyers of residential property are happy to turn out in large numbers to compete so aggressively. It’s all about pricing of course – value for money is key to success today. At the December auction, competition wasn’t limited to the perceived safety of London and the south east and regional lots drew some strong interest. None more so than 100 acres of grazing land on the fringe of Dunblane, Scotland: guided at £300,000 to £500,000, after 20 minutes of tense bidding, it was knocked down for £1.11m. It was also good to see owner occupiers bidding confidently – they are giving buy to let investors a run for their money. Lot 142, a large house in Herondale Avenue, Wandsworth, for example, sold for £1.71m from a guide of £1.3 – £1.5m. This has been an excellent end to a very successful year for the team and we are excited about the prospects that 2011 will bring.”
Lisa Orme (Williams) – Keys Mortgages Ltd
“I’m incredibly optimistic about the rental sector and the housing market for the next few years; in fact I’d go so far as to say there’s never been a better time to be landlord. That’s hard to swallow for some when they feel they missed the ‘easy lending and property boom of the 2000s’ but let me put my neck on the line!
The lack of mortgage availability and liquidity in the market means more people are choosing to rent as they can’t get a mortgage or raise the deposits (10% minimum realistically), others can’t move as they’re fearful of job cuts or have lost equity in their homes creating a fairly inactive property market. In addition we have the same old issues of death, divorce, separation, debt and so on that put more people into the housing market as well as youngsters wanting place of their own. The latest figures show less people are leaving the UK than have done for years and a fresh wave of EU migrants are returning to the UK to take up jobs UK people won’t leading to net immigration.
Job losses, increased financial commitments, VAT increases and inflation will add to people’s concerns for their finances and lead them to stay put, rent instead of own or force many into repossession.
There’s a distinct lack of social housing as we know, councils have sold off much of their stock and aren’t building many more, housing associations similarly as they benefited most from taking a share of new build estates and we know who they have suffered recently. Many of these people will therefore need to rent. Capital Economics predicts that by 2015 1 in 5 households will live in privet rented accommodation. This will push rents up. As prices fall further, rents increase and rates stay low for the foreseeable future cashflow and yields will go up and this will encourage lenders into the buy to let arena.
Housing starts are at their lowest since the 1920s and again coupled with a rising population the tipping point will no doubt arise. The banking crisis will be forgotten, tenants will realise they’re better off buying than renting, the economy will be on the road to recovery and house prices will start to rise again. I estimate this will be in about 5 years and we could see an even bigger boom than the last one!
All in all a good time to be a landlord but don’t forget the old adage prices can fall as well as rise and rents certainly can too! Have a plan b, c, d and e just in case!”
Bernard Clarke – The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)
“With growth in output likely to be relatively modest and the rate of inflation expected to fall sharply at the beginning of 2012 as the effect of January’s increase in VAT to 20% falls out of the annual calculation, the Bank of England is expected to continue to pursue a relaxed monetary policy. It is unlikely that the base rate will rise significantly in the short term and it is quite possible that it will remain unchanged at its current level of 0.5% for the whole of next year.
The key messages behind our forecasts for 2011 are:
- The UK economy has begun a process of long-term re-balancing. Public sector spending cuts imply a difficult jobs market in the coming years. And with households also seeking to reduce levels of indebtedness, demand for mortgages may be subdued for some time;
- Over the short to medium term, lenders will need to manage some large-scale re-financing of wholesale funding. From April next year onwards, lenders will begin to have to re-pay the funding advanced through official support schemes. This is likely to limit the availability of credit to support mortgage lending next year, and beyond;
- Historically low interest rates are likely to underpin significantly current house price values, despite low levels of property sales;
- The continuing prospect of low interest rates, and flat or modestly falling house prices, reinforces the likelihood that remortgaging levels will remain low, even though growing numbers of borrowers are coming to the end of introductory deals and reverting to their lenders’ standard variable rate;
- Low interest rates will help the vast majority of households to manage to keep up with their loan repayments and so will help keep mortgage arrears and possessions in check;
- The outcome of the Financial Services Authority’s (FSA) ongoing mortgage market review continues to be a major and unhelpful source of uncertainty for the lending industry. Firms do not know when the FSA will issue firm rules or whether it will modify its current excessively risk-averse approach. This uncertainty will itself reinforce lenders’ caution.”
Peter Williams – Academetrics House Price Research
“The uncertainty in the market that has characterised 2010 will continue into 2011. Although we have seen encouraging signs of growth in the economy, this may be partly a consequence of expenditure being brought forward to avoid the VAT rise as well as the flow through from expenditure decisions taken by both the previous and current governments. Although some momentum may be maintained, 2011 will also see increased pressure on lenders in terms of funding along with the steadily increasing impact of the austerity budget earlier this year.
All this suggests that though there will be some good news (including ‘the wedding’) this will be balanced off by negatives and our expectation is that house price rises over the 12 months to December 2011 will again be close to zero across the country as a whole (perhaps in the 0 to 3% range).Transactions might edge up a little from the very low base at present (again with, perhaps, up to a 5% increase).
What is much more certain, is that the housing market will respond in different ways in different areas and according to the different property types. Prime properties in prime districts of central London and other major cities are examples of this. This will be a reflection of the very varied geography of the recovery, incomes, savings and access to mortgages.
Thus, although our expectations for the year are somewhat modest, we do have a market where annually demand exceeds supply both nationally and in many localities. We would expect local variations to intensify and it will be important for all those involved in the market to understand local trends. PS Investor Services readers might be interested in our local and regional price and transaction trend data which can be found via this link.”
Yogesh Chandarana – Landlord Action
“With the continued challenging economic climate and caps on LHA rates coming into effect in 2011, we predict that many landlords will face a challenging 2011. We are, therefore, expecting to see a rise in possession actions.
The Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML) has recently forecast that repossessions will rise to 40,000 in 2011. Currently, 175,000 home mortgages stand in arrears and the CML predict that this will increase slightly to 180,000 in 2011.
It is not all bad news: landlords will be pleased that tight credit markets are restricting the supply of new housing stock for the private rented sector. This implies that prices will remain at or around their current level. Whilst this restricts landlords and property investor’s ability to invest in new property, it has already had the effect of pushing up rental prices for landlords.
The Government has incentivised landlords with direct payments of housing benefit if they reduce their rent in line with new LHA rates. We advise that these new incentives are met with caution.”
Aran Curry – Mortgage Insight
“I believe that 2011 is going to be a steady year. House prices twelve months from now will more or less be where they are now – perhaps a very small increase. The important thing is for people to stop worrying about little tweaks in movement. Property is a long term game and without a doubt it will be worth a lot more in 10 years time. Invest now and worry about what the price is in 2/3 years time.”
Ben Hughes and George Nartey – Social Housing Expert
“Government has proposed radical reforms to Welfare with Local Housing Allowance payments expected to be cut as part of wider measures to tackle the £155 billion budget deficit. Reform is also intended to address issues which have ensured sensational headlines for the Local Housing Allowance!
The speed and extent of the proposed cuts however, has created serious concern for tenants and landlords. Local Authorities, Housing Associations, landlord associations, MPs, the Mayor of London, Shelter and Crisis amongst others also fear that tenants will be forced into rent arrears and that evictions, increasing homelessness and social upheaval will result.
With these changes in mind, and continuing credit constraints, experienced Social Housing investors Ben Hughes and George Nartey expect that 2011 will be a challenging year. On the plus side however, the shortage of Social Housing (1.8 million families are on Council waiting lists), new-build at a 60 year low, higher unemployment and a growing population, will create strong opportunities for informed investors.
Investors who provide good homes for the Social Housing sector in areas of greatest need often benefit from very low voids, 3-5 year leasing schemes, guaranteed rents, renovation grants, free management and other incentives, all of which contribute positively to the bottom line! Happy Investing in 2011!”
Sarah Beeney – Tepilo / C4’s Property Ladder
“I think at the moment we are still bouncing along the bottom of the market, and price rises shouldn’t be too dominant for some time, but also won’t fall much either. If you need to sell I would suggest you get going now or in the New Year. If you haven’t found a property you want to buy, then there’s no point in buying anything until it’s the right one – the cost of moving can be as much as 10% these days.
Property is most definitely still selling! The most important thing to remember in this climate is to remain calm. Do all you can to not take into consideration headline scaremongering of a predicted 14.7% drop in values in one newspaper one day or a 16.4% rise in another newspaper the next – why not 13.9% or 15.8% as they would be likely to be as accurate? If you have to sell for less you can more than likely buy for less too. The truth is you need to keep both feet on the ground and get finance you can afford to pay off and a property that will suit your needs for the next few years. If you are selling be realistic about how much you can sell for and you will get a buyer and of course save yourself thousands of pounds by using www.tepilo.com where it’s free to sell.”
Jonathan Davis – Jonathan Davis Chartered Financial Planner

The above chart does not show that prices got back up to their late 2007 peak. What it shows is prices fell hard for around a year and a half then they bounced for around a year. However, the rise was much shallower than the preceding fall (down c 18%; up c 9%). Average prices topped out in early Summer at c 10% below the all-time peak of late 2007. Prices have been falling since and soon they will go negative, year-on-year. Prices will likely plummet over the next couple of years – as we said they would before Crash #1 and repeatedly since. We said that prices would fall 40-50% over a few years. We remain on course for that forecast to be proven accurate.
Transaction numbers are heavily down and continuing to fall, lending is severely restricted due to ongoing national and international banking problems, BTL numbers are 80% down on 2007, unemployment will likely rise significantly due to government cutbacks and repossessions will likely rise as banks see it as politically acceptable to do so (long term arrears are high – even with record low mortgage costs). Thus, price changes will likely go negative, year on year, by the early part of next year and will continue down for 2 or 3 years. 10-15% fall 2011 and 30% fall by 2013.
Paul Howard (Head of Corporate Accounts) – The Mortgage Works
“If you’re already a landlord and you’re thinking about your future mortgage options, you need to think about what may happen to interest rates. Interest rate prediction is not an exact science and people don’t really know when they will rise. If you believe that interest rates won’t rise for some time, then it might be best to stay on your variable rate – unless you require further funding. If however you think interest rates are set to rise, then it may be sensible to consider your remortgage and purchase options now. If rates do rise, this in itself will probably stimulate the property market leading to more activity and therefore increases in prices. In this respect, you would be better to buy now while the bargains are available. There is good evidence that the buy-to-let remortgage market is very much alive and The Mortgage Works is currently seeing a significant proportion of its new business coming from landlords remortgaging from other lenders.
Optimism is returning to the buy-to-let market and positive indicators are evident. Although the level of funding is not the same as the pre-crunch days, lenders are returning to the market and those such as The Mortgage Works are very much open for business. Challenges ahead remain but I am confident that, taking all things into account, buy-to-let lenders and landlords are helping to fulfil a real social need.”
Liz Peace – Chief Executive of the British Property Federation
“The next year could see a significant furthering of the property ‘North-South divide’, as the government’s spending cuts begin to bite. That is unless government acts decisively to stimulate the private sector to take up the economic output that will be lost from the public sector.
The cuts are set to have a disproportionately large impact in the North, which is heavily reliant on public expenditure and employment. This in turn could stifle demand for residential and commercial property. For London and the South, significantly less exposed to the public sector, the picture is a little rosier.
The government does however find itself presented with several opportunities to rebalance the UK economy that could see the private sector offset the worst effects of the lost public sector investment.
Mechanisms such as Tax Increment Financing, the New Homes Bonus and incentivising councils to approve developments by allowing them to retain the increase in business rates, have the potential to increase spark urban renewal and boost occupier demand in our towns and cities.”
Mark Jackson – Lease Options Made Simple
“Taking a shower at 8 a.m. on the top floor of a three star hotel can be a bit of an ordeal. Instead of the anticipated ‘power shower’ all you get is a tepid dribble. That picture neatly portrays the state of liquidity in the UK housing market as we approach 2011.
The issue is not so much about cash reserves being low, just as the disappointment with the shower is not caused by a drought; it’s more a question of how available funding is flowing. If everybody in a full hotel wants a shower at the same time, some guests will get a better service. Likewise, as long as it is more profitable and less risky to lend to individuals through credit cards, personal loans and residential remortgages, funding in the buy-to-let market will be reduced.
In 2011, I expect to see the popularity of no-money-down purchases on below market value property fall. Why?
- Lenders will continue to restrict the number of mortgages they grant to investors;
- New hurdles to no-money-down property purchases will be created by lenders;
- Further serious questions about the legality of some schemes will be raised within the investor community, damaging confidence;
- Other important and alternative ways of controlling property without the need for new bank finance – like lease options – will become more common.
House prices will likely fall further in 2011 (with the exception of London) due to tightened lending criteria, an increase in unemployment and continuing buyer uncertainty. However, pent up demand will drive a future increase in house prices, as the UK will see 250,000 new households formed every year between now and 2031. This demand will need to be satisfied and, like a cork is forced from a well-shaken champagne bottle, I expect house prices to fly upwards from 2013.
Investors who want to take advantage of this very exciting time will be keen to learn to use lease options well in 2011. We will, however, also see serious issues and questions raised, as investors have yet to understand the dangers of agreeing lease options with distressed sellers, the implications of the all-monies clause, the ticking time-bomb we call sandwich options and the fragility of some lease option paperwork currently being used. Lease options are still little understood in the UK.
For cashflow without the headache of managing tenants we will see investors using cooperative options, an arrangement in which the investor links seller and buyer with a lease option contract and takes a substantial upfront payment.
So, in my opinion, no ‘power shower’ expected during 2011 and 2012 for the UK property market. In the meantime any investor who wants to take advantage of an amazing opportunity to increase wealth through property in any significant way will use strategies which allow portfolio building by piggy-backing on the owner’s existing finance, which is exactly what lease options allow you to do.”
Nick Dare – Dare Property
“Along with FIFA’s recent decision to award the next football World Cups to Russia and Qatar, one can sometimes be forgiven for believing the nation’s favourite topic of conversation is that of house prices.
With six recognised house price indices and counting; bulls, bears and everyone in between can find support for their beliefs. I am sorry to disappoint but despite having what must be the most analysed residential property market in the world, the reality is no-one knows what 2011 will bring.
What is clear is that, again like the World Cup bidding process, there will be winners and losers. Parts of London, the South-East and select pockets in other regions will pull away from and outperform the general market. Like it or not, such markets are not affected by the same macro and micro economic factors as the mainstream property market. Indeed, they are characterised by a high percentage of cash buyers (over 80% in places) and first time buyers being helped by “the bank of Mum and Dad.”
On a macro level, Bank of England base rates can now be expected to remain at their historic lows well into 2011. Despite increasing margins charged by the banks for mortgage lending, my fear is too many individuals now consider this “the new normal.” It is not. Base rates will have to increase; possibly not for another 9 months but increase they will.
The impact of future base rate increases needs to considered along with the impending tax increases, Public Sector cuts and what I believe will be an increased tightening in bank lending as banks repay their vast loans via the Special Liquidity Scheme and other vehicles.
For those parts of the country reliant on the Public Sector and where the Private Sector base is insufficient to absorb job losses, we guestimate house prices may fall by around 6% over the coming year. In some micro locations particularly affected by business closures, the fall may be greater.
In areas such as the South-East, London and prime coastal spots, we would anticipate the volume of transactions to remain around half of previous levels. As anyone who invests in the stock market will know, low volumes of trading result in higher volatility. Our guestimate for these regions is for slight increases and falls month by month and for a largely flat 2011 overall.
Of course, should the current Eurozone economic crisis spread to Spain, Italy and beyond all bets are off. Up to now, a shortage of new homes being built along with a growing number of new households has helped to provide a floor to price decreases. There is no avoiding the single most important component of the UK housing market – availability of credit and for the average UK house price that more than anything else will shape the year to come.”
Russell Short – Property Partners Online
“2011 promises to be a difficult year for the UK property market. With austerity measures starting to grip the UK, unemployment stubbornly high and the Eurozone looking unstable the economic forecast is grim reading. Property prices are widely expected to fall and indeed latest figures show a net decrease of 0.8% over October. With Mortgage Lenders still reluctant to advance funds without large deposits the housing market is certainly set for a period of stagnation at the very best. But, its not all bad news! Landlords and agents are now reporting rent increases in many parts of the country. This is a direct result of the mortgage companies suffiocating approach which is driving average property prices down and subsequently forcing more potential buyers into tenanted properties. The rise in demand has seen some agents asking for sealed bids from prospective tenants so driving prices up.
I will stick my neck out and predict that interest rates will remain low well into 2012 while rents across England and Wales increase by as much as 20% in some areas. As they say – Every cloud has a silver lining!”
Heidi Roberts – Premier Property Finders / The Office Blog
“So what about 2011? Well without my crystal ball, who knows! But let’s take a guess… With potential interest rate rises, (even if they are only small), January’s jump in VAT to 20%, higher unemployment and steep increases in food and fuel bills on the horizon, it seems unlikely things are about to get easier for homeowners in 2011. Also media hype is definitely affecting potential purchasers’ expectations regarding prices, with lower offers being made as a result. If the media does not get too negative, there is no reason for a dip. Bricks and mortar are still attractive investments. A bit of positive talk would help the market pick up.
What does this add up to? For the economy, the hit to the incomes of the ‘squeezed middle’ means lower growth because this is a large demographic that spends virtually everything it earns. However, as in any situations, there are winners and losers. I feel that on the whole, the housing market in 2011 will be a cooling market. Would now be a good time to buy? Hell yes! In my experience it is always a good time to buy if you’re holding property. If you are buying to sell on, then there are lots of bargains to be had and this will remain so for the foreseeable year ahead. Millionaires are made in recessions.
The conclusion I have reached after the 10 years of madcap lending, is that house prices are not a function of demand, but are simply a function of how much money the lenders are willing to advance. Almost everything else is immaterial with the exception of the media. With few signs that the banks are going to ‘play ball’ it is difficult to see how prices can advance much further. But being of a positive nature I am still thinking that ‘positive talk’ will help, as the media can be a powerful tool.”
Kevin Green – Kevin Green Properties / The Property Train
“It’s probably fair to say that the market this year has been bouncing a lot at the bottom and next year is likely to see prices remain static. The banks are still being tough and my suggestion to investors is to be very careful in what you buy; ensure there is good cash flow as property prices will take some time to recover and, if using any creative strategy, make sure you fully understand your short, medium and long-term obligations. The basis of my strategy is to continue to clear off the debt on my houses so I have an entirely mortgage free portfolio.”
Alan Forsyth – Property Secrets / Property Investment Deals
“Going into 2010 it was difficult to see the silver lining in the mortgage market for many people, as the media continued to enjoy the putdowns wherever possible. For me, I won’t sit here and write this saying I knew it would be fine, but I kept positive and understood that only the most savvy investors would keep buying property during 2010 and find a way to negotiate the mortgage minefield. Below are some highlights:
The return of the 80% mortgage with The Mortgage Works – Highlighting lender confidence in the buy to let market and an underlying confidence that whilst property prices may be fluctuating, generally they do not expect any significant falls in value going forward.
The introduction of new lenders – Aldermore, Paragon, Precise, Kensington – If you told me at the beginning of the year that we would see the introduction/return of four new lenders, I would have told you to stop dreaming. Whilst their criteria and products are based around a cautious lender attitude, it’s a great sign for the buy to let market and I expect significant product improvements/ relaxed criteria going into 2011 as the competition increases.
A massive increase in available mortgage products – I can say that the biggest difference I have seen that my customers would not have noticed, is the availability of mortgage products in 2010. In fact, according to Mortgage Brain, they have doubled. The increase in mortgage products reveals that the increase of mortgage funding is going up. Borrowing from the BOE has been put aside in favour of banks offering customers super high interest rates and offsetting this against super high arrangement fees for mortgages. Whilst we complain about these arrangement fees, at present they are very important for bank funding. If a deal works, then most of us will be prepared to surrender to these high fees for a decent property on a low interest rate.
So to summarise, we have seen a surprisingly positive year of lending in the buy to let market in 2010. There is no better sign to indicate a growing property market (however slow or month by month variant) than the sign of lenders entering back into the mortgage market and seeing an increase in the number of mortgage products available. For those of you who took advantage of the deals in 2010, you can be sure you have made a safe investment and you will continue to benefit from high cash flow from your low rates mortgages well into 2011.
If I could give one tip going forward it would be to really grasp the data on your credit file. Most of us are lucky to have a portfolio of properties. Even the most hands-on investor will struggle to keep their file clean. It is keeping your file clean that will ensure you can obtain finance from the top lenders at low rates. It can be something as simple as a missed utility bill whilst your flat was empty that you didn’t know about which could leave you being declined by the likes of TMW and BM for low rates.
I never like to do this but I will put my neck on the line here, I honestly think that rates will stay low well into 2011. There are various pressures to increase rates (such as inflation) but with recent news on the state of the US economy coming to light and Euro Zone problems, I doubt the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will want to expose our economy to these dangers any time soon.”
Patrick Jacobs – National Landlords Association
“In the last three years landlords have witnessed very little to be cheerful about in the BTL market. We will all recall the mass exodus of lenders and the wide withdrawal of products a short while ago and ever since one of the most significant obstacles facing property investors has been accessing affordable and appropriate finance.
Landlords have been getting increasingly frustrated at not being able to take advantage property prices which have dropped to the lowest levels in a number of years. While only those with particularly deep pockets have been able to expand their portfolios. However, it would appear that things may be beginning to improve.
Confidence is key to the BTL market, and over the last few months big name brands including Paragon and Abbey for Intermediaries have announced the intention to return to BTL. This is driving hopes of impending recovery and while only time will tell the NLA certainly hopes that the market will soon return to strength.”
Simon Zutshi – Property Investors Network
“It is very difficult to predict what will happen to UK property prices in 2011. I believe there is real pent up demand from first time buyers and investors who recognise that prices are relatiively low now compared with recent years. This means we could see prices rise but the main challenge is availability of finance and surveyors who still seem to be down valuing many properties. However there is a big chance of a second dip because the banks have repossessed many properties that they have not yet released onto the property market. If these are released onto the market too quickly there may be an over-supply which would cause prices to fall further.
Either way this uncertainty means there is a massive buying opportunity for the educated investor who does not mind short term prices fluctuations. As long as you buy property that gives a positive cash flow now, in an area with strong rental demand, with a long term view, and at the right price, then it is a good time to buy. The key is to know what you are doing.”
Roberta Ward – My Property Mentor
“Personally I feel it would be difficult for prices not to drop when you have potential mass job losses on the horizon, together with poor levels of bank lending and a continued interest rate freeze.
Job losses will inevitably lead to some repossessions (unless the banks decide to hang on to them and not release to the market), repos lead to a flood of housing on the market, which generally takes prices down. What we really have right now is a buyers market. The few buyers that are around are able to bargain hard with vendors, also forcing a downward trend. There are not a significant number of investors to take up the slack, as many are to highly leveraged to get further finance.
If interest rates rise this will force many more into repossession because large sections of the market are only surviving due to the low rates. Many can’t refinance either, and selling will be difficult when prices drop leaving them with some tough choices. Much of the recent residential buy to let sector is likely to suffer as investors were careless in mortgaging to high levels of finance.
I suspect we won’t have a ‘crash’ as such, but we will continue in a downward drift month on month until we see what happens when all the cuts and other things going on around property buying and selling really hit home.”
Vanessa Warwick – The Property Tribes Investors Forum
“I believe that we are in unchartered waters in property at the moment, and will be for some time. This is due to the worldwide economic situation, and the fact that, in the U.K., we are facing austerity measures as a result of that. However, I have always believed in property as a long term investment and I still have 100% confidence in it. That will never change. All markets go through cycles, and, if you have positive net cash flow and are not selling anything, you should be able to weather the storm. Or the hurricane in this case! I do not see any capital growth outside of London and the South East for several years. I believe that London and the South East will remain robust with strong rental demand.
My personal strategy for 2011 is to consolidate what we already have, pay down debt, and develop other income streams outside of property. Our holiday lets continue to perform exceptionally and I will continue to look for holiday lets for acquisition. I am a great believer in coastal property and think it will increasingly be at a premium. I will also continue to focus on creating up-market properties that stand out from the crowd.
There is tremendous opportunity in property at the moment for those with cash, and, if I was starting out now, I would focus on buying with deep discounts, adding value by refurbishment, and renting out to professional tenants for the long term.”
David Duckworth – Property Networker
“I think property prices will stay stagnant, if not drop slightly in 2011, due to the backlash from the recent mass unemployment and VAT rise in January coupled with the bank lending criteria become increasingly strict.”
Fraser Macdonald – Property Fit
“I feel that although there is a small amount of increased demand for NW English investment property that prices will remain flat in 2011. Some reports state that prices are reducing but in my experience this is not the case. It is still a buyer’s market and will continue to be so until 2013. I think that prices have bottomed and that now is a good time to buy. We are seeing yields of up to 10% and this is the level of yield that we experienced before the house price boom of 03/04. Now that most city centre apartment building has stopped and a lot of these flats have been sold the demand for any type of rental property in most areas is high. With rental demand continuing to be strong it continues to be a good time to buy. Even with house prices this low many first time buyers are being priced out of the market with demands from mortgage companies for large deposits, not all first time buyers can rely on the bank of Mum and Dad! This coupled with the very slow house building sector means that property investment is buoyant and will continue to be so.”
Phil Rikards – BM Solutions
“We shouldn’t expect any great changes as we head into 2011. The market will remain broadly stable. We’re on a slow curve and for the majority of next year, we should expect only small movements in house prices. We also expect base rate to remain low for some time.”
Simon Goody – My Money Mentor
“My own point of view is that house prices are overpriced and will therefore fall over the next few years. Income multiples are around x5 plus; deposits required are still high; banks are not lending; commercial toxic debt hasn’t hit yet; issues in the Euro zone remain tenuous to name a few.
My advice is to place yourself in a safe a position as possible. Use current increased positive cash flows with low rates now to bolster the future increases in rates and possible higher inflation – that way it will ease the burden in the future.”