Archive for the ‘Economics for the Property Investor’ Category

Sarah Beeney on the Current State of Play…

April 28th, 2011

Needing very little introduction, Sarah Beeney’s reputation as a genuine expert in all aspects of property ownership is unquestionable.  With a number of varied business interests – including a TV series, an award winning property portal and a popular dating website – her dedicated and strong work ethic has made her a household name and a positive figure representing the property industry as a whole.  Please see an interview below where we talked about what Sarah has been up to; the future effects of base rate rises on the property market; protection against negative equity; acquisition strategies; buying at the right price in the current climate; buying to sell; lease options; the growth of the Tepilo brand and the online vs. offline estate agency debate…

We last spoke to you about a year ago – can you give us a bit of an update of what you have been up to? It’s been quite a year really.  Tepilo.com has gone from strength to strength and we’re delighted at the inroads we’ve made into the property sales and lettings market. Mysinglefriend is still matchmaking thousands of couples and I’m always thrilled at the success stories. Rise Hall is now up and running as a wedding and events venue and my latest series Beeny’s Restoration Nightmare was shown on Channel 4 in November and January.  I’ve been filming another couple of series recently, one for the BBC and one for Channel 4 and hope they will air over the summer.   The boys have also been keeping me busy, now aged 1, 3, 5 and 6.

In terms of your own strategy – how have things changed since prior to the recession? Looking at Tepilo, we launched the business in the recession, so we’re fairly sure it’s quite recession proof. People will always need to buy, sell and let properties, but saving on all the fees is preferable, especially so when things aren’t going so well for people. The strategy hasn’t changed much, and we’re pleased with the rate of growth and adoption.  You do have to be aware in general that disposable incomes are lower and the volume of transactions will in general decrease when times are hard, but things won’t stay like this for ever – so it’s about riding out the storm.

When base rates rise sooner or later – how do you think they will affect the property market? It’s a good question. I think it really depends on when they rise and by how much, but it’s going to have a big impact. It’s sad, but we are a nation with huge debt, and those who have over-borrowed will face some real problems and I suspect repossessions will be rampant.  We might count our lucky stars that the banks haven’t continued to lend in the same fashion as they used to, although this has been hard on buyers, it’s saved many of them from borrowing at rates they may not be able to afford – the days of 5x salary are certainly over.

How do you think current property owners (particularly those in negative equity) can protect themselves as best as possible in what could well be turbulent times ahead? I don’t think we will see the huge drops in house prices that some are predicting, so hopefully negative equity won’t be too bad – I think we’re bouncing along the bottom of the market at the moment, and there won’t be much change for some time. It’s obviously preferable to ensure you reduce your borrowing as rates rise, and also look around for the best rates on your mortgage and other loans.

What do you think are the best acquisition strategies at the moment? I don’t think now is a bad time to buy. But I think there is a lot of speculation over interest rates, which will have an impact on your strategy. The cities seem to be holding out best in terms of value, particularly London, but high-end country homes are also in high demand at the moment. With less people making it abroad, the holiday let sector is still very strong too. I suspect with low finance availability and people struggling to get on the property ladder, the buy to let sector may be back with a vengeance for those that can afford to set themselves up there. The rental sector is stronger than ever.

With low levels of sales, how can investors be sure that they are buying at the right price? Have a look at the trends, in most places prices have only fallen by a small amount, and are mainly static. A property is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, so just make sure you are realistic.  Look at the rental income generated from nearby properties and make sure that with a worst-case scenario that would still cover a mortgage at higher rates. I think if you are buying to keep the property for the long term, prices will be back on their way up before too long.

Is buy to sell in the current flat market a particularly risky investment methodology? Yes, I wouldn’t be brave enough to take the gamble at the moment. It depends on the area and so on, but it’s not the best time to be taking on the markets in that way. I would only look to buy as an investment with a view to keeping the properties for at least 5 years. The mass demand for each property we had at the top of the market just isn’t there right now.

Can you provide some tips for investors to follow who are considering buy to sell? You just need to be very sure in what area you look to buy. It’s a real gamble betting on an increase in prices in the next year, but if you can stick to city based or high end country properties, you might just be able to pick up a bargain and make a small gain, but it really is risky right now.

What are your thoughts on placing lease options on property? I think lease options have had quite a rough ride in recent years and don’t have much respect right now. They fall in the same bracket as BMV companies in many peoples eyes and haven’t got the best reputation. However the concept does work, you just need to make a credible option for buyers and regain some trust. I would think demand for this in future years might well increase with the current financial situation.

What are the plans for Tepilo for the short, medium and long term? Now we’ve built a solid start to the site, we’re slowly starting to monetize the site, which so far seems to be going very well.  We are looking at international and commercial options, and are also considering enabling advertising for agents – there’s been really high demand for this. We have a service directory launching which enables our users to find property related services as and when they need them. We also have some big marketing initiatives and are excited about the next 12 months.

What are your thoughts on the debate over the diminishing role of the high street estate agent – do you think they still have a role moving forward as more sites such as yours come to the forefront? There will most probably always be high street agents. The traditionalists among us just won’t be comfortable selling online, but we are growing all the time as people hear about the great results and the ease at which people are selling and letting –more and more people are giving us a try. In the US over 40% of properties are sold privately reportedly, so we’ve some way to go, but we don’t see any reason why Tepilo shouldn’t be the way forward.

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2011 House Price Thoughts, Predictions and Strategies

December 16th, 2010

Please see below some quotes of the leading UK property related company owners and investors on their thoughts for the coming year.  We would like to thank all who participated and would encourage readers to click on to their websites to find out more about their services:

James Davis – Upad

“We’re expecting continued downward pressure on property prices due to lack of available financing – though of course this will hit some areas of the country much harder than others. Limits on LTV and product fees are prohibitive for many buyers right now and this isn’t likely to change over the next 12 months.

Because of the slow sales market, we’re expecting to see the rise again of the “accidental landlord” – people who need to move but can’t sell their property. Fortunately for them, demand in the rental market is likely to remain exceptionally strong. We won’t be surprised to see rent increases of 10% or more over the next year, and in some areas potentially even more. While restricted lending is hampering many property investors, those landlords who do have access to cash are likely to see yields increase significantly.”

Julie Hanson Just do Property

“So what does 2011 have in store for UK house prices? Well that is the ultimate question we all want the answer to.  Across the board we are back to prices from the same time last year, approximately 2.5% below the highs seem during the year.

The general consensus from the key House Price Index organisations seems to be a fairly flat market with some downward pressure due to the uncertainty with the economy and also investors will to wait longer to snap up good deals. With the general view that interest rates will continue to remain low in 2011 helping to ward off loan defaults and repossessions – this in turn should help keep any further fall in prices to a minimum. Of course regionally the picture is different and we may see stronger falls in some areas with increases in others.”

Parmdeep Vadesha The Property Tycoon Method

“2011 will be an exciting year for property investors… Tougher access to finance and continued downbeat media coverage will deter all but the creative and prepared investors who will be cleaning up while the unprepared worry about property prices, problem tenants or some other aspect of property investment that can be easily managed in reality. Property is a long term investment vehicle and should be approached sensibly with a sound long term strategy.”

Rob Moore – Progressive Property

“A ‘lost generation’ of first time buyers [FTB’s] who can’t get on the housing ladder will force down the values of properties, but landlords will benefit from record rents, high demand, shrinking void periods, and low interest rates which are set to stay the same throughout 2011. Lenders are catching on to the levels of increased rental demand and the likes of Paragon and larger groups like Santander will show a greater interest in landlords next year by taking on new business. The question arises should you jump on the buy to let bandwagon? We will definitely witness a backlog of repossessions through into the New Year, which will be very attractive to professional investors. Although we will not see any capital growth for some time to come, and prices are looking to stay depressed until 2012, strong rents, higher yields [cashflow] and more negotiable sellers making bigger discounts are already and will continue to become a reality, even to novice investors. Estate Agents need you more and are more motivated to offer you deals that wouldn’t have seen the window 4 years ago

Although it may still be tricky to get access to finance with fewer mortgages available now than at the height of the boom, this should not deter you from investing. Access to Joint Venture [JV] and Private Investor [PI] finance has never been as liquid: keen to protect the value of their cash and to replace the loss of interest income, many see injecting their cash into a buy-to-let property a better return on investment [ROI]. See my latest article by clicking here.

The “Own nothing, control everything strategy” will become far more common place in 2011, with a greater degree of investors trading options, monetising on their reject deals [DP], and earning more passively with a greater degree of opportunities

Yes we will see a fall in house prices, yes lending will still be scrappy, and this should be you’re OPPORTUNITY to invest like a true Contrarian [Warren Buffett, George Soros] and buy at the right price, enjoy the healthy cash flow, monetise different property related revenue streams [without the need for a mortgage]. Be patient and wait for the cyclical nature of the property cycle to rise, where your capital appreciation will return to heights in the future, like 2001 – 2007”

Gary Murphy – Allsop Auction House

“We ended 2010 on a high note with a £45.7m residential auction selling 85% of all lots offered. The sale brings the residential sales total for the year to £335m and 88% from 2089 lots (2009 £330m and 87% from 2049 lots).  In spite of the gloomy economic background, it’s encouraging to see that buyers of residential property are happy to turn out in large numbers to compete so aggressively. It’s all about pricing of course – value for money is key to success today.  At the December auction, competition wasn’t limited to the perceived safety of London and the south east and regional lots drew some strong interest.  None more so than 100 acres of grazing land on the fringe of Dunblane, Scotland: guided at £300,000 to £500,000, after 20 minutes of tense bidding, it was knocked down for £1.11m. It was also good to see owner occupiers bidding confidently – they are giving buy to let investors a run for their money. Lot 142, a large house in Herondale Avenue, Wandsworth, for example, sold for £1.71m from a guide of £1.3 – £1.5m.  This has been an excellent end to a very successful year for the team and we are excited about the prospects that 2011 will bring.”

Lisa Orme (Williams) – Keys Mortgages Ltd

“I’m incredibly optimistic about the rental sector and the housing market for the next few years; in fact I’d go so far as to say there’s never been a better time to be landlord. That’s hard to swallow for some when they feel they missed the ‘easy lending and property boom of the 2000s’ but let me put my neck on the line!

The lack of mortgage availability and liquidity in the market means more people are choosing to rent as they can’t get a mortgage or raise the deposits (10% minimum realistically), others can’t move as they’re fearful of job cuts or have lost equity in their homes creating a fairly inactive property market. In addition we have the same old issues of death, divorce, separation, debt and so on that put more people into the housing market as well as youngsters wanting place of their own. The latest figures show less people are leaving the UK than have done for years and a fresh wave of EU migrants are returning to the UK to take up jobs UK people won’t leading to net immigration.

Job losses, increased financial commitments, VAT increases and inflation will add to people’s concerns for their finances and lead them to stay put, rent instead of own or force many into repossession.

There’s a distinct lack of social housing as we know, councils have sold off much of their stock and aren’t building many more, housing associations similarly as they benefited most from taking a share of new build estates and we know who they have suffered recently. Many of these people will therefore need to rent. Capital Economics predicts that by 2015 1 in 5 households will live in privet rented accommodation. This will push rents up.  As prices fall further, rents increase and rates stay low for the foreseeable future cashflow and yields will go up and this will encourage lenders into the buy to let arena.

Housing starts are at their lowest since the 1920s and again coupled with a rising population the tipping point will no doubt arise. The banking crisis will be forgotten, tenants will realise they’re better off buying than renting, the economy will be on the road to recovery and house prices will start to rise again. I estimate this will be in about 5 years and we could see an even bigger boom than the last one!

All in all a good time to be a landlord but don’t forget the old adage prices can fall as well as rise and rents certainly can too! Have a plan b, c, d and e just in case!”

Bernard Clarke – The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)

“With growth in output likely to be relatively modest and the rate of inflation expected to fall sharply at the beginning of 2012 as the effect of January’s increase in VAT to 20% falls out of the annual calculation, the Bank of England is expected to continue to pursue a relaxed monetary policy. It is unlikely that the base rate will rise significantly in the short term and it is quite possible that it will remain unchanged at its current level of 0.5% for the whole of next year.

The key messages behind our forecasts for 2011 are:

  • The UK economy has begun a process of long-term re-balancing. Public sector spending cuts imply a difficult jobs market in the coming years. And with households also seeking to reduce levels of indebtedness, demand for mortgages may be subdued for some time;
  • Over the short to medium term, lenders will need to manage some large-scale re-financing of wholesale funding. From April next year onwards, lenders will begin to have to re-pay the funding advanced through official support schemes. This is likely to limit the availability of credit to support mortgage lending next year, and beyond;
  • Historically low interest rates are likely to underpin significantly current house price values, despite low levels of property sales;
  • The continuing prospect of low interest rates, and flat or modestly falling house prices, reinforces the likelihood that remortgaging levels will remain low, even though growing numbers of borrowers are coming to the end of introductory deals and reverting to their lenders’ standard variable rate;
  • Low interest rates will help the vast majority of households to manage to keep up with their loan repayments and so will help keep mortgage arrears and possessions in check;
  • The outcome of the Financial Services Authority’s (FSA) ongoing mortgage market review continues to be a major and unhelpful source of uncertainty for the lending industry. Firms do not know when the FSA will issue firm rules or whether it will modify its current excessively risk-averse approach. This uncertainty will itself reinforce lenders’ caution.”

Peter Williams – Academetrics House Price Research

“The uncertainty in the market that has characterised 2010 will continue into 2011. Although we have seen encouraging signs of growth in the economy, this may be partly a consequence of expenditure being brought forward to avoid the VAT rise as well as the flow through from expenditure decisions taken by both the previous and current governments. Although some momentum may be maintained, 2011 will also see increased pressure on lenders in terms of funding along with the steadily increasing impact of the austerity budget earlier this year.

All this suggests that though there will be some good news (including ‘the wedding’) this will be balanced off by negatives and our expectation is that house price rises over the 12 months to December 2011 will again be close to zero across the country as a whole (perhaps in the 0 to 3% range).Transactions might edge up a little from the very low base at present (again with, perhaps, up to a 5% increase).

What is much more certain, is that the housing market will respond in different ways in different areas and according to the different property types. Prime properties in prime districts of central London and other major cities are examples of this. This will be a reflection of the very varied geography of the recovery, incomes, savings and access to mortgages.

Thus, although our expectations for the year are somewhat modest, we do have a market where annually demand exceeds supply both nationally and in many localities. We would expect local variations to intensify and it will be important for all those involved in the market to understand local trends. PS Investor Services readers might be interested in our local and regional price and transaction trend data which can be found via this link.”

Yogesh Chandarana – Landlord Action

“With the continued challenging economic climate and caps on LHA rates coming into effect in 2011, we predict that many landlords will face a challenging 2011. We are, therefore, expecting to see a rise in possession actions.

The Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML) has recently forecast that repossessions will rise to 40,000 in 2011. Currently, 175,000 home mortgages stand in arrears and the CML predict that this will increase slightly to 180,000 in 2011.

It is not all bad news: landlords will be pleased that tight credit markets are restricting the supply of new housing stock for the private rented sector. This implies that prices will remain at or around their current level. Whilst this restricts landlords and property investor’s ability to invest in new property, it has already had the effect of pushing up rental prices for landlords.

The Government has incentivised landlords with direct payments of housing benefit if they reduce their rent in line with new LHA rates. We advise that these new incentives are met with caution.”

Aran Curry – Mortgage Insight

“I believe that 2011 is going to be a steady year. House prices twelve months from now will more or less be where they are now – perhaps a very small increase. The important thing is for people to stop worrying about little tweaks in movement. Property is a long term game and without a doubt it will be worth a lot more in 10 years time. Invest now and worry about what the price is in 2/3 years time.”

Ben Hughes and George Nartey – Social Housing Expert

“Government has proposed radical reforms to Welfare with Local Housing Allowance payments expected to be cut as part of wider measures to tackle the £155 billion budget deficit. Reform is also intended to address issues which have ensured sensational headlines for the Local Housing Allowance!

The speed and extent of the proposed cuts however, has created serious concern for tenants and landlords. Local Authorities, Housing Associations, landlord associations, MPs, the Mayor of London, Shelter and Crisis amongst others also fear that tenants will be forced into rent arrears and that evictions, increasing homelessness and social upheaval will result.

With these changes in mind, and continuing credit constraints, experienced Social Housing investors Ben Hughes and George Nartey expect that 2011 will be a challenging year. On the plus side however, the shortage of Social Housing (1.8 million families are on Council waiting lists), new-build at a 60 year low, higher unemployment and a growing population, will create strong opportunities for informed investors.

Investors who provide good homes for the Social Housing sector in areas of greatest need often benefit from very low voids, 3-5 year leasing schemes, guaranteed rents, renovation grants, free management and other incentives, all of which contribute positively to the bottom line!  Happy Investing in 2011!”

Sarah Beeney – Tepilo / C4’s Property Ladder

“I think at the moment we are still bouncing along the bottom of the market, and price rises shouldn’t be too dominant for some time, but also won’t fall much either. If you need to sell I would suggest you get going now or in the New Year. If you haven’t found a property you want to buy, then there’s no point in buying anything until it’s the right one – the cost of moving can be as much as 10% these days.

Property is most definitely still selling! The most important thing to remember in this climate is to remain calm.  Do all you can to not take into consideration headline scaremongering of a predicted 14.7% drop in values in one newspaper one day or a 16.4% rise in another newspaper the next – why not 13.9% or 15.8% as they would be likely to be as accurate?  If you have to sell for less you can more than likely buy for less too. The truth is you need to keep both feet on the ground and get finance you can afford to pay off and a property that will suit your needs for the next few years.   If you are selling be realistic about how much you can sell for and you will get a buyer and of course save yourself thousands of pounds by using www.tepilo.com where it’s free to sell.”

Jonathan Davis – Jonathan Davis Chartered Financial Planner

The above chart does not show that prices got back up to their late 2007 peak.  What it shows is prices fell hard for around a year and a half then they bounced for around a year.  However, the rise was much shallower than the preceding fall (down c 18%; up c 9%).  Average prices topped out in early Summer at c 10% below the all-time peak of late 2007.  Prices have been falling since and soon they will go negative, year-on-year.  Prices will likely plummet over the next couple of years – as we said they would before Crash #1 and repeatedly since.  We said that prices would fall 40-50% over a few years.  We remain on course for that forecast to be proven accurate.

Transaction numbers are heavily down and continuing to fall, lending is severely restricted due to ongoing national and international banking problems, BTL numbers are 80% down on 2007, unemployment will likely rise significantly due to government cutbacks and repossessions will likely rise as banks see it as politically acceptable to do so (long term arrears are high – even with record low mortgage costs).  Thus, price changes will likely go negative, year on year, by the early part of next year and will continue down for 2 or 3 years.  10-15% fall 2011 and 30% fall by 2013.

Paul Howard (Head of Corporate Accounts) – The Mortgage Works

“If you’re already a landlord and you’re thinking about your future mortgage options, you need to think about what may happen to interest rates. Interest rate prediction is not an exact science and people don’t really know when they will rise.  If you believe that interest rates won’t rise for some time, then it might be best to stay on your variable rate – unless you require further funding.   If however you think interest rates are set to rise, then it may be sensible to consider your remortgage and purchase options now.   If rates do rise, this in itself will probably stimulate the property market leading to more activity and therefore increases in prices.  In this respect, you would be better to buy now while the bargains are available.  There is good evidence that the buy-to-let remortgage market is very much alive and The Mortgage Works is currently seeing a significant proportion of its new business coming from landlords remortgaging from other lenders.

Optimism is returning to the buy-to-let market and positive indicators are evident.  Although the level of funding is not the same as the pre-crunch days, lenders are returning to the market and those such as The Mortgage Works are very much open for business.  Challenges ahead remain but I am confident that, taking all things into account, buy-to-let lenders and landlords are helping to fulfil a real social need.”

Liz Peace – Chief Executive of the British Property Federation

“The next year could see a significant furthering of the property ‘North-South divide’, as the government’s spending cuts begin to bite. That is unless government acts decisively to stimulate the private sector to take up the economic output that will be lost from the public sector.

The cuts are set to have a disproportionately large impact in the North, which is heavily reliant on public expenditure and employment. This in turn could stifle demand for residential and commercial property. For London and the South, significantly less exposed to the public sector, the picture is a little rosier.

The government does however find itself presented with several opportunities to rebalance the UK economy that could see the private sector offset the worst effects of the lost public sector investment.

Mechanisms such as Tax Increment Financing, the New Homes Bonus and incentivising councils to approve developments by allowing them to retain the increase in business rates, have the potential to increase spark urban renewal and boost occupier demand in our towns and cities.”

Mark Jackson – Lease Options Made Simple

“Taking a shower at 8 a.m. on the top floor of a three star hotel can be a bit of an ordeal. Instead of the anticipated ‘power shower’ all you get is a tepid dribble. That picture neatly portrays the state of liquidity in the UK housing market as we approach 2011.

The issue is not so much about cash reserves being low, just as the disappointment with the shower is not caused by a drought; it’s more a question of how available funding is flowing. If everybody in a full hotel wants a shower at the same time, some guests will get a better service. Likewise, as long as it is more profitable and less risky to lend to individuals through credit cards, personal loans and residential remortgages, funding in the buy-to-let market will be reduced.

In 2011, I expect to see the popularity of no-money-down purchases on below market value property fall. Why?

  • Lenders will continue to restrict the number of mortgages they grant to investors;
  • New hurdles to no-money-down property purchases will be created by lenders;
  • Further serious questions about the legality of some schemes will be raised within the investor community, damaging confidence;
  • Other important and alternative ways of controlling property without the need for new bank finance – like lease options – will become more common.

House prices will likely fall further in 2011 (with the exception of London) due to tightened lending criteria, an increase in unemployment and continuing buyer uncertainty. However, pent up demand will drive a future increase in house prices, as the UK will see 250,000 new households formed every year between now and 2031. This demand will need to be satisfied and, like a cork is forced from a well-shaken champagne bottle, I expect house prices to fly upwards from 2013.

Investors who want to take advantage of this very exciting time will be keen to learn to use lease options well in 2011. We will, however, also see serious issues and questions raised, as investors have yet to understand the dangers of agreeing lease options with distressed sellers, the implications of the all-monies clause, the ticking time-bomb we call sandwich options and the fragility of some lease option paperwork currently being used. Lease options are still little understood in the UK.

For cashflow without the headache of managing tenants we will see investors using cooperative options, an arrangement in which the investor links seller and buyer with a lease option contract and takes a substantial upfront payment.

So, in my opinion, no ‘power shower’ expected during 2011 and 2012 for the UK property market. In the meantime any investor who wants to take advantage of an amazing opportunity to increase wealth through property in any significant way will use strategies which allow portfolio building by piggy-backing on the owner’s existing finance, which is exactly what lease options allow you to do.”

Nick Dare – Dare Property

“Along with FIFA’s recent decision to award the next football World Cups to Russia and Qatar, one can sometimes be forgiven for believing the nation’s favourite topic of conversation is that of house prices.

With six recognised house price indices and counting; bulls, bears and everyone in between can find support for their beliefs. I am sorry to disappoint but despite having what must be the most analysed residential property market in the world, the reality is  no-one knows what 2011 will bring.

What is clear is that, again like the World Cup bidding process, there will be winners and losers. Parts of London, the South-East and select pockets in other regions will pull away from and outperform the general market. Like it or not, such markets are not affected by the same macro and micro economic factors as the mainstream property market. Indeed, they are characterised by a high percentage of cash buyers (over 80% in places) and first time buyers being helped by “the bank of Mum and Dad.”

On a macro level, Bank of England base rates can now be expected to remain at their historic lows well into 2011. Despite increasing margins charged by the banks for mortgage lending, my fear is too many individuals now consider this “the new normal.” It is not. Base rates will have to increase; possibly not for another 9 months but increase they will.

The impact of future base rate increases needs to considered along with the impending tax increases, Public Sector cuts and what I believe will be an increased tightening in bank lending as banks repay their vast loans via the Special Liquidity Scheme and other vehicles.

For those parts of the country reliant on the Public Sector and where the Private Sector base is insufficient to absorb job losses, we guestimate house prices may fall by around 6% over the coming year. In some micro locations particularly affected by business closures, the fall may be greater.

In areas such as the South-East, London and prime coastal spots, we would anticipate the volume of transactions to remain around half of previous levels. As anyone who invests in the stock market will know, low volumes of trading result in higher volatility. Our guestimate for these regions is for slight increases and falls month by month and for a largely flat 2011 overall.

Of course, should the current Eurozone economic crisis spread to Spain, Italy and beyond all bets are off. Up to now, a shortage of new homes being built along with a growing number of new households has helped to provide a floor to price decreases. There is no avoiding the single most important component of the UK housing market – availability of credit and for the average UK house price that more than anything else will shape the year to come.”

Russell Short – Property Partners Online

“2011 promises to be a difficult year for the UK property market. With austerity measures starting to grip the UK, unemployment stubbornly high and the Eurozone looking unstable the economic forecast is grim reading. Property prices are widely expected to fall and indeed latest figures show a net decrease of 0.8% over October. With Mortgage Lenders still reluctant to advance funds without large deposits the housing market is certainly set for a period of stagnation at the very best. But, its not all bad news! Landlords and agents are now reporting rent increases in many parts of the country. This is a direct result of the mortgage companies suffiocating approach which is driving average property prices down and subsequently forcing more potential buyers into tenanted properties. The rise in demand has seen some agents asking for sealed bids from prospective tenants so driving prices up.

I will stick my neck out and predict that interest rates will remain low well into 2012 while rents across England and Wales increase by as much as 20% in some areas. As they say – Every cloud has a silver lining!”

Heidi Roberts – Premier Property Finders / The Office Blog

“So what about 2011? Well without my crystal ball, who knows! But let’s take a guess… With potential interest rate rises, (even if they are only small), January’s jump in VAT to 20%, higher unemployment and steep increases in food and fuel bills on the horizon, it seems unlikely things are about to get easier for homeowners in 2011. Also media hype is definitely affecting potential purchasers’ expectations regarding prices, with lower offers being made as a result.  If the media does not get too negative, there is no reason for a dip. Bricks and mortar are still attractive investments. A bit of positive talk would help the market pick up.

What does this add up to? For the economy, the hit to the incomes of the ‘squeezed middle’ means lower growth because this is a large demographic that spends virtually everything it earns. However, as in any situations, there are winners and losers. I feel that on the whole, the housing market in 2011 will be a cooling market. Would now be a good time to buy? Hell yes! In my experience it is always a good time to buy if you’re holding property. If you are buying to sell on, then there are lots of bargains to be had and this will remain so for the foreseeable year ahead. Millionaires are made in recessions.

The conclusion I have reached after the 10 years of madcap lending, is that house prices are not a function of demand, but are simply a function of how much money the lenders are willing to advance. Almost everything else is immaterial with the exception of the media. With few signs that the banks are going to ‘play ball’ it is difficult to see how prices can advance much further. But being of a positive nature I am still thinking that ‘positive talk’ will help, as the media can be a powerful tool.”

Kevin Green – Kevin Green Properties / The Property Train

“It’s probably fair to say that the market this year has been bouncing a lot at the bottom and next year is likely to see prices remain static.  The banks are still being tough and my suggestion to investors is to be very careful in what you buy; ensure there is good cash flow as property prices will take some time to recover and, if using any creative strategy, make sure you fully understand your short, medium and long-term obligations.  The basis of my strategy is to continue to clear off the debt on my houses so I have an entirely mortgage free portfolio.”

Alan Forsyth – Property Secrets / Property Investment Deals

“Going into 2010 it was difficult to see the silver lining in the mortgage market for many people, as the media continued to enjoy the putdowns wherever possible. For me, I won’t sit here and write this saying I knew it would be fine, but I kept positive and understood that only the most savvy investors would keep buying property during 2010 and find a way to negotiate the mortgage minefield.  Below are some highlights:

The return of the 80% mortgage with The Mortgage Works – Highlighting lender confidence in the buy to let market and an underlying confidence that whilst property prices may be fluctuating, generally they do not expect any significant falls in value going forward.

The introduction of new lenders – Aldermore, Paragon, Precise, Kensington – If you told me at the beginning of the year that we would see the introduction/return of four new lenders, I would have told you to stop dreaming. Whilst their criteria and products are based around a cautious lender attitude, it’s a great sign for the buy to let market and I expect significant product improvements/ relaxed criteria going into 2011 as the competition increases.

A massive increase in available mortgage products – I can say that the biggest difference I have seen that my customers would not have noticed, is the availability of mortgage products in 2010. In fact, according to Mortgage Brain, they have doubled. The increase in mortgage products reveals that the increase of mortgage funding is going up. Borrowing from the BOE has been put aside in favour of banks offering customers super high interest rates and offsetting this against super high arrangement fees for mortgages. Whilst we complain about these arrangement fees, at present they are very important for bank funding. If a deal works, then most of us will be prepared to surrender to these high fees for a decent property on a low interest rate.

So to summarise, we have seen a surprisingly positive year of lending in the buy to let market in 2010. There is no better sign to indicate a growing property market (however slow or month by month variant) than the sign of lenders entering back into the mortgage market and seeing an increase in the number of mortgage products available. For those of you who took advantage of the deals in 2010, you can be sure you have made a safe investment and you will continue to benefit from high cash flow from your low rates mortgages well into 2011.

If I could give one tip going forward it would be to really grasp the data on your credit file. Most of us are lucky to have a portfolio of properties. Even the most hands-on investor will struggle to keep their file clean. It is keeping your file clean that will ensure you can obtain finance from the top lenders at low rates. It can be something as simple as a missed utility bill whilst your flat was empty that you didn’t know about which could leave you being declined by the likes of TMW and BM for low rates.

I never like to do this but I will put my neck on the line here, I honestly think that rates will stay low well into 2011. There are various pressures to increase rates (such as inflation) but with recent news on the state of the US economy coming to light and Euro Zone problems, I doubt the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will want to expose our economy to these dangers any time soon.”

Patrick Jacobs National Landlords Association

“In the last three years landlords have witnessed very little to be cheerful about in the BTL market. We will all recall the mass exodus of lenders and the wide withdrawal of products a short while ago and ever since one of the most significant obstacles facing property investors has been accessing affordable and appropriate finance.

Landlords have been getting increasingly frustrated at not being able to take advantage property prices which have dropped to the lowest levels in a number of years. While only those with particularly deep pockets have been able to expand their portfolios. However, it would appear that things may be beginning to improve.

Confidence is key to the BTL market, and over the last few months big name brands including Paragon and Abbey for Intermediaries have announced the intention to return to BTL. This is driving hopes of impending recovery and while only time will tell the NLA certainly hopes that the market will soon return to strength.”

Simon Zutshi Property Investors Network

“It is very difficult to predict what will happen to UK property prices in 2011. I believe there is real pent up demand from first time buyers and investors who recognise that prices are relatiively low now compared with recent years. This means we could see prices rise but the main challenge is availability of finance and surveyors who still seem to be down valuing many properties. However there is a big chance of a second dip because the banks have repossessed many properties that they have not yet released onto the property market. If these are released onto the market too quickly there may be an over-supply which would cause prices to fall further.

Either way this uncertainty means there is a massive buying opportunity for the educated investor who does not mind short term prices fluctuations. As long as you buy property that gives a positive cash flow now, in an area with strong rental demand, with a long term view, and at the right price, then it is a good time to buy. The key is to know what you are doing.”

Roberta Ward My Property Mentor

“Personally I feel it would be difficult for prices not to drop when you have potential mass job losses on the horizon, together with poor levels of bank lending and a continued interest rate freeze.

Job losses will inevitably lead to some repossessions (unless the banks decide to hang on to them and not release to the market), repos lead to a flood of housing on the market, which generally takes prices down. What we really have right now is a buyers market. The few buyers that are around are able to bargain hard with vendors, also forcing a downward trend. There are not a significant number of investors to take up the slack, as many are to highly leveraged to get further finance.

If interest rates rise this will force many more into repossession because large sections of the market are only surviving due to the low rates. Many can’t refinance either, and selling will be difficult when prices drop leaving them with some tough choices. Much of the recent residential buy to let sector is likely to suffer as investors were careless in mortgaging to high levels of finance.

I suspect we won’t have a ‘crash’ as such, but we will continue in a downward drift month on month until we see what happens when all the cuts and other things going on around property buying and selling really hit home.”

Vanessa Warwick The Property Tribes Investors Forum

“I believe that we are in unchartered waters in property at the moment, and will be for some time.  This is due to the worldwide economic situation, and the fact that, in the U.K., we are facing austerity measures as a result of that.  However, I have always believed in property as a long term investment and I still have 100% confidence in it.  That will never change.  All markets go through cycles, and, if you have positive net cash flow and are not selling anything, you should be able to weather the storm.  Or the hurricane in this case!  I do not see any capital growth outside of London and the South East for several years.  I believe that London and the South East will remain robust with strong rental demand.

My personal strategy for 2011 is to consolidate what we already have, pay down debt, and develop other income streams outside of property.  Our holiday lets continue to perform exceptionally and I will continue to look for holiday lets for acquisition.  I am a great believer in coastal property and think it will increasingly be at a premium.    I will also continue to focus on creating up-market properties that stand out from the crowd.

There is tremendous opportunity in property at the moment for those with cash, and, if I was starting out now, I would focus on buying with deep discounts, adding value by refurbishment, and renting out to professional tenants for the long term.”

David Duckworth Property Networker

“I think property prices will stay stagnant, if not drop slightly in 2011, due to the backlash from the recent mass unemployment and VAT rise in January coupled with the bank lending criteria become increasingly strict.”

Fraser Macdonald Property Fit

“I feel that although there is a small amount of increased demand for NW English investment property that prices will remain flat in 2011. Some reports state that prices are reducing but in my experience this is not the case. It is still a buyer’s market and will continue to be so until 2013. I think that prices have bottomed and that now is a good time to buy. We are seeing yields of up to 10% and this is the level of yield that we experienced before the house price boom of 03/04. Now that most city centre apartment building has stopped and a lot of these flats have been sold the demand for any type of rental property in most areas is high. With rental demand continuing to be strong it continues to be a good time to buy. Even with house prices this low many first time buyers are being priced out of the market with demands from mortgage companies for large deposits, not all first time buyers can rely on the bank of Mum and Dad! This coupled with the very slow house building sector means that property investment is buoyant and will continue to be so.”

Phil Rikards – BM Solutions

“We shouldn’t expect any great changes as we head into 2011. The market will remain broadly stable. We’re on a slow curve and for the majority of next year, we should expect only small movements in house prices. We also expect base rate to remain low for some time.”

Simon Goody My Money Mentor

“My own point of view is that house prices are overpriced and will therefore fall over the next few years.  Income multiples are around x5 plus; deposits required are still high; banks are not lending; commercial toxic debt hasn’t hit yet; issues in the Euro zone remain tenuous to name a few.

My advice is to place yourself in a safe a position as possible.  Use current increased positive cash flows with low rates now to bolster the future increases in rates and possible higher inflation – that way it will ease the burden in the future.”

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October Property Investor Factsheet

October 7th, 2010

October 2010 Property Investors Factsheet (free membership required)

As it was decided that the UK bank base rate will remain at 0.5 percent, further disagreement was seen amongst Monetary Policy Committee members – not only from Andrew Sentance (who has called for a 0.25 percent increase for some time) but also Adam Posen, an internationally respected expert on Japan’s ‘lost decade’, suggested that more, not less, monetary stimulus was needed: “it is right for both long-term stability and short-term performance for central banks to do more now…”

Halifax’s September report of a 3.6 percent monthly drop as a ‘beginning of a sustained period of declining house prices’ was described by Howard Archer of Global insight as ’shocking’: “while a drop in house prices always seemed probable in September after Halifax had reported price rises in August and July that conflicted with other surveys, a plunge of of this size was off everybody’s radar.”  The RICS Housing Survey this month also showed only 7 percent of surveyors seeing a rise in prices (compared to last months 11 percent) and 38 percent seeing falls (compared to 25 percent last month).  A survey by Zoopla reported that homeowner confidence had fallen amid concerns over the availability of mortgage finance:  63 percent of homeowners now expect property prices to rise over the next six months, compared to 78 percent of homeowners in June.  However, positive news for property investors was announced by ARLA (Association of Residential Lettings Agents) that the number of tenants seeking rental properties has reached an eight year high – demand is highest in the south east of England where 81 percent of agents reported that there are more tenants than properties compared to 67 percent in the rest of the UK and 73 percent in Central London.  A Markit / CIPS survey of construction industry purchasing managers showed an unexpected pick in the level of activity – although doubts remained as to how demand will fare in the next few months.

The lending markets have also seen some encouraging signs with Legal & General (in its third quarter adviser confidence index) reporting that 85 percent of advisers predicting that business will improve or at least stay the same over the next 3 months despite the current undertone of negativity.  Buy to let product wise, the Mortgage Works (TMW) have positively revised their product range – sending us the following information:

  • New one and two-year tracker mortgages at 70 percent LTV, with rates starting at 3.39 percent;
  • A two-year fixed rate option with 0 percent arrangement fee now available at up to 70 percent LTV;
  • The expansion of the longer term product range with the introduction of a four-year fixed rate (up to 75 percent LTV) and a five-year fixed rate (up to 80 percent LTV);
  • The introduction of a £1,000 cashback option for HMO applications;

… as well as some enhancements to the buy to let range including:

  • One-year fixed and tracker remortgages options at 70 percent LTV, now available at 3.99 percent, with free standard valuation and standard legal fees;
  • Tracker rates improved by up to 0.15 percent across the range;
  • A free standard valuation option available for house purchase customers when they select: TMW’s two-year fixed rate mortgage at 60 percent LTV with a 0 percent arrangement fee;
  • Significant rate improvements across all HMO and Limited Company products.

The Bank of China have continued to seek a wider share of the UK buy-to-let market with a 1 year 75 percent LTV product with a 4.1 percent payrate.  Cuts have also been seen in the broader residential lending – for example by HSBC (with a reduction of 0.4 percent on all its 80 percent LTV mortgage products) and Lloyds TSB (with the introduction of a 70 percent LTV fixed rate with interest at 3.39 percent).

In related news, despite marginal growth last month, a survey of 400 agencies by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG pointed to an increased risk of a ‘double dip’.  Kevin Green, the REC’s chief executive, stated to the FT: “I think the labour market is in for a real bumpy ride – unemployment, currently 2.47m or 7.8 percent of the workforce, could rise again to 2.7m by the middle of next year.”

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Property Investment Due Diligence Tips from a Leading Econometrics Consultancy

August 25th, 2010

As many investors continue to debate over whether the property market is going through a process bottoming out, one of the main challenges that continues to face the industry is a seeming lack of concrete housing data to undertake truly valid analyses - largely due to the fact that there are such low levels of sales activity.  We are therefore very pleased to present a very interesting an insightful interview with David Thorpe of Acadametrics – a consultancy that provides detailed housing-related information to a range of important institutions and is regularly featured in broadsheet media sources.  We talk in detail about how the organisation undertakes housing research; the UK house price index system and its related criticisms; stress-testing the UK housing industry; the current fragility of the property market and some thoughts for the future.

1) Who are Acadametrics? We are a privately owned housing analytics company which has worked in the sector from 1988.

2) Who are the clients that you mainly work with? Banks and building societies but surveying and estate agency firms, hedge funds, property funds – indeed, with any organisation which is active in housing.

3) Can you talk through the major reports and statistical analyses that Acadametrics produce? Our flagship report is our monthly News Release and associated information, published on our website, reporting the house price trends shown by the LSL Property Services/Acadametrics House Price Index (LSL Acad HPI).  In addition, we publish on our website e.g. our House Price Calculator (HPC) enabling a known past value of a house to be updated in accordance with the data underlying our index: this is similar to the calculators provided on the lender websites but the updates are calculated at a more granular level, subject to the availability of adequate data.

4) The majority of our readers are property investors and developers – and, as you mention on your website, the main difficulty that people are having in the current climate is researching the true market value of property.  What are your thoughts / advice? We will not need to remind your readers that the property market is a market like any other and a house is worth whatever a willing buyer is ready to pay. An index, such as the LSL Acad HPI, provides a measure of monthly and annual house price inflation and an average price for a particular geography at a particular time. Indices are backward looking, as are house price calculators. Even our HPC provides only a broad brush estimate, since it uses inflation by property only at county/London borough level and may have to use inflation at regional level if not enough transactions take place of a particular property type within a particular county for reliability. A full explanation is linked to our statistical HPC. An index and an HPC are amongst the tools which can be used by property investors and developers. We also provide the Acadametrics Prices and Transactions (APAT) data used by our HPC as a monthly series, showing the average price and transaction numbers for detached, semi-detached and terraced houses and flats for each county and London borough. APAT data are used to reveal trends in market values. We are adding to APAT optional monthly data at postcode district level; in addition we offer forecasts of prices for the four property types at postcode sector level, using a “quant” procedure developed by analysts TFL whose housing sector work we have taken over. Please see our comment on house price forecasts below.

5) Can you run through the essential stages you adopt when compiling your analyses? On the first working day of each month, the Land Registry send us the average price and transaction numbers by county and London borough for all the transactions registered on their database for the immediate past and all prior months. We use the data for the immediate past month to prepare the current house price index % Monthly inflation, % Annual inflation and average price results for England & Wales, each region and each county/London borough, together with our News Release and many associated reports and data tables. LSL Property Services PLC add a practitioners commentary to the News Release which is then sent by the Wriglesworth Agency to the media and are shown on our website. Using the prior month’s data, we update the inflation and average price results provided in our earlier releases until additional transactions have no further influence on our results. At this point, we describe the particular results as LSL Acad HPI “ultimate”. We will freely send LSL Acad HPI every month to readers who care to send us an email address through the link here.

6) What do you think are the most trustworthy indices in operation in the UK? Every Index is trustworthy in that we may assume that each provider makes the best possible estimates based upon the available data. We would certainly expect developers and investors to compare and contrast the indices. Our Index Monitor, published on our website, tracks how closely or otherwise each index compares with the inflation results shown when most transactions have been reported and prices are approaching “ultimate”. Readers might well want to use Index Monitor to establish how much confidence they wish to place in a particular index.

7) You have partnered with the ‘Zoopla’ organisation – why did you choose this particular index of house prices to work for? AS well as the property website with which readers will be familiar, Zoopla provides an Automatic Valuation Model (AVM). When our statistical HPC shows that APAT revalues a property only with say two standard deviations, when revaluing a lender’s residential  property portfolio, we would recommend that an AVM be used for such a property. We chose the Zoopla as being an excellent AVM, in our opinion.

8)The National Statistics Authority is planning to investigate the house prices indices and I wondered if you could provide a response to this? We would ask to be excused from providing a public response before we have answered the ONS questionnaire. Suffice to say that we have already queried, at a Royal Statistical Society meeting, the existence of two official house price indices and three official house prices. Readers are likely to be aware of – but many people will be misled by – the concept of a “standardised” average, as opposed to a simple average, house price. A standardised average, as provided by the Nationwide and Halifax indices, takes the average calculated at a past date and updates it monthly according to the movement of the index. In the case of the lenders, the past price was calculated hedonically from the values assessed, at the time, of e.g. a bedroom, a bathroom and a garage. In the case of the Land Registry (which lacks details on numbers of bedrooms and bathrooms etc), the standardised average is that calculated at 2000, backdated to 1995 or updated from 2000 by the value of the index. CLG (like our own index) calculates a mix adjusted average price using current prices. Land Registry also calculates a quarterly simple average price which they provide for the BBC website; hence, the existence of three official average prices at national level, for February 2010, as follows:

  • Land Registry simple average £224,064 (taken as a February price from the BBC Q1/10 average)
  • Land Registry standardised average £164,455 (taken from the February Land Registry index)
  • CLG mix adjusted average £204,359 (taken from the February CLG index)

Readers, but not all of the public, will be aware that the:  lenders use prices taken from each surveyor valuation at the time of a mortgage offer; CLG uses prices agreed at the time of each mortgage completion; Land Registry uses the reported transacted prices (but, for the index, only the circa 35% for which a price from a prior transaction is available). Also lender and CLG prices are for the UK; Land Registry prices are for England & Wales. Be these details as they may, our concern is that the public may not be able to see any reliable house price wood amongst all the house price trees. For the official statistics to report that the average house price is £224,064 – alternatively £164,455 – is confusing.  Average house prices reported by CLG are consistently quite close to those which we calculate.

9) You have many years of stress-testing various aspects of the UK housing industry - can you explain the various aspects of how you work in this regard? We take the lender’s portfolio, or the part of it upon which the lender wishes us to work, and update the value of the properties using our APAT data. At portfolio level, our tests have shown that APAT provides a very closely accurate value. Using our look- up tables providing the “hazard” or probability of redemption or possession for each property, based upon the performance of a comparable group of properties during e.g. the 1989-1991”worst case” housing crisis, we the estimate a Probability of Possession and a Loss in the Event of Possession for each loan. Our database enables us to prepare the above under different macroeconomic scenarios including “current” and the FSA ”worst case”. With our New York colleagues MIAC Analytics, we now offer users the ability to undertake this work in-house using the Acadametrics and MIAC data and software on the MIAC DataRaptor OLAP database management engine and MIAC WinOAS cash flow management tool, downloaded from our secure UK server.

10) Can you describe what the “Stress and Scenario Testing for UK Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities; The Requirement for Loan-By-Loan Testing” document is and why it should be read by those in the housing industry? Lack of funding is a key issue in today’s housing market. A revival of securitisation for residential loans would provide a part if not a full solution. Investor demand and, hence, investor confidence is, in turn, key to a revival. Our Dr Stephen Satchell (Economics Fellow Trinity College Cambridge) wrote this Discussion Paper for MIAC ACADAMETRICS LTD to describe the movement in the USA and EC towards loan level stress testing as a means to secure investor confidence. We recommend Dr Satchell’s paper as valuable reading and a guide to the future of the market for developers and investors.

11) On a general level, how fragile is the UK housing market at the present time? The UK market is a regional and even a local market as readers will know. The RICS survey is required reading for professional opinion as to local trends. At national level, LSL Acad HPI shows average house prices virtually unchanged from £221,074 in April to £220,685 in July. Whilst the July price is our forecast based upon the c.35% of transactions reported to Land Registry by month end and will be subject to change when many more July data are available at end August, our prices are true averages (smoothed over three month periods), as opposed to the “standardised” prices reported by the lenders and the Land Registry index. Be that as it may, the trend is flat and, to the extent that it could go in either direction, we would certainly say that, even at national level, the market is fragile. Our APAT will indicate local trends.

12) Can you provide us with your prediction on the short (1 year), medium (5 years) and long term (10 years) movement of house prices – and how you have come to this prediction? Readers will understand that only Paul the octopus, fresh from success at the World Cup, would provide a confident house price prediction. Forecasting models, whether based upon macroeconomics, or (such as ours) based upon quantitative analysis, are thrown off course by events such as the financial crisis from which Western economies have not yet emerged. The huge house price falls which this caused were mostly unforeseen and many economists were equally surprised by the upturn which occurred in Spring 2009 but which is now flattening out.  We provide a forecast only as a trend line to show how we would expect prices to progress, given no sudden changes to general conditions, such as in the economy or the legal framework around house purchase. Our “quant” forecasts use a very large number of economic data series and neural statistics to show how prices should move given anticipated movement in the data employed. Such a trend line should not be used to provide a definitive forecast of prices in a particular postcode sector, or other particular geography, at a particular date, but to provide a long term benchmark trend, against which to measure the factual changes which are occurring. With such a benchmark (and others, such as the much used price to earnings ratio), it is possible to make better judgements as to e.g. by how much prices are above trend (and if they are in a bubble), or below trend, and what changes might thus be expected to take place. Since our forecasts have the above caveat and particular purpose, readers will understand, we are sure, that we do not place them in the public domain lest they be misunderstood.

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August 2010 Property Investor Factsheet

August 5th, 2010

August 2010 Property Investors Factsheet

Please click on the link above to access the latest facts and figures relevant to UK property investors (note you will have to be a member of the Property Investor Hub which can be done quickly and easily here).

The majority of house price indices have pointed to small drops in prices (with the Halifax being the only exception, reporting a 0.6 % increase for July). Whilst Land Registry statistics have also indicated a slight increase in average house prices, this is widely viewed as a balancing out due to the 0.2 percent drop that was seen in May.  Additionally, the number of RICS surveyors (who largely rely on Land Registry data) reporting a rise in house prices has decreased by 9 percent since last month which generally adheres to the professional consensus that house prices are set to continue to fall marginally in the coming months.  The discount on auction properties has widened by 1.6 percent on the month representing a total of 17.6 percent, according to Fathom Consulting.

Mortgage products available have slightly lost their competitively when compared to previous months with TMW (The Mortgage Works) increasing the pay rate of their 80 percent loan to value product to 5.49 percent (previously 4.69) – attributed due to a rise a demand for what is currently a rare borrowing level.  However, results from the banks quarterly reports showed some encouraging signs with Northern Rock demonstrating it is sitting on a cash pile of more than £7 billion; HSBC revealing that its profits for the first half of 2010 had more than doubled to £7 billion (the bank recently announced a fixed 3.95 percent rate for residential property, widely predicted as a result of increased pressure by the government to begin expanding its loan book) and Barclays announcing that their profits have risen by 44 percent to £3.95 billion (they have subsequently initiated rate cuts as a result).

Whilst the bank base rate remained at 0.5 percent, broad ranged predictions with regards to its increase continued to be debated with former Bank of England deputy-governor, Sir John Gieve, stating that it will have to rise earlier and more sharply than expected to keep inflation under control (to 2.5 percent by July 2011) whereas the Ernst & Young ITEM Club predicted that they would not rise at all until the end of 2013 (assuming impending spending cuts come to fruition).  A poll by the Fair Investment Company illustrated that 67 percent of respondents thought the base rate would be higher than 0.5 percent by July 2011, with 30 percent predicting a half point increase to 1 percent and 29 percent believing it would hit 1.50 percent in 12 months time.  The Bank of England’s inflation benchmark, the Consumer Prices Index, is slowing from the high periods reached earlier in the year – but concerns prompted as to the effects of the impending VAT increase in January 2011 when the British Retail Consortium (BRC) predicted upward pressure on prices in the months ahead looking more likely.

Some other interesting statistics include a daily average of £23.35 million of loan write offs being undertaken by UK banks and building societies; slight decreases in the level of personal and household debt levels as well as a drop in the amount of interest being paid daily (full lending statistics available on the factsheet).  Whilst unemployment was reported to have dropped (to 7.8 percent), supplemetary statistics have shown that there are also approximately 5.87 million people who are on the dole in all but name (the Office of National Statistics figures only point to people who are looking for work).

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June 2010 Property Investor Factsheet

June 11th, 2010

Please click on the link above to access this months statistics, news and information for the property investor (you will have to be a member of the Property Investor Hub which can be done in under a minute by clicking here).

This months statistics illustrate that most of the indices are reporting to a year-on-year rise in house prices, including the Land Registry (the Halifax reported a slight drop in the month). There is also more confidence from RICS surveyors reporting a rise in house prices (and less reporting falls).  Whilst the number of mortgage approvals slightly declined, the 3 month LIBOR has decreased by 0.13 percentage points which could mean some promising news for the mortgage market (Money Supermarket statistics have shown that the number of mortgage products available on the market had surpassed the 3,000 mark for the first time since July 2009).

However, the CPI has increased by almost 1 percent (to reach an eighteen year high) and the RPI has increased by 0.3 percent – the Bank of England has stated that this sharp rise will be temporary, yet some experts are beginning to lose faith in the governments’ willingness to keep prices under control. Eleven of the 25 city economists surveyed by the Telegraph believed inflation was a bigger worry than deflation over the next five-years; nine said that deflation remained the primary concern; while five other economists said that they either believed there would be a combination of both, or that the two would even each other out (click here to view an article via the Telegraph discussing the inflation/deflation debate).

The number of people seeking advice from the Citizens Advice Bureau has increased marginally; unemployment has increased slightly (with 757,000 people being unemployed for 12 months or more) and the average household debt has also decreased marginally.  The daily increase in government national debt fell, on average, by £26.6 million and repossessions were also down. Total secured lending continued to increase at a slightly faster pace than the month previous whilst consumer credit decreased marginally – however it was reported at the start of June that the number of new credit cards coming on the market had risen.

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January Property Investor Factsheet

January 8th, 2010
January 2010 Factsheet
Welcome to the new year and we hope you had a good break.  Please see the first factsheet of the year by clicking on the link above.
Many of you would have read our 2010 Property Investors Report which discussed the predictions that a number of house prices indices were making – most of which pointed to further dips to be expected.  Indeed, a start-of year Financial Times survey pointed to 55 of 70 of Britain’s leading economists believing that house prices were still too high.
Nevertheless, home lending has continued to increase with Bank of England statistics indicating that the number of mortgage approvals has more than doubled in the last 12 months (net lending has increased for the third month in a row to £1.46 billion, a level last seen in February).  Other positive news shows that unemployment has been decreasing to 2,093 people being made redundant every day in December (compared to 2,247 in November).  Buy to let mortgage rates remain fairly low although it is predicted that high LTV products will not appear on the market any time soon.
To gain direct unlimited access to the factsheets (as well as the other free guides, videos, landlord tools etc.) please ensure you are registered to the Property Investor Hub by clicking here.

January 2010 Factsheet

Please see the first factsheet of the year by clicking on the link above.

Many of you would have read our 2010 Property Investors Report which discussed the predictions that a number of house prices indices were making – most of which pointed to further dips to be expected.  Indeed, a start-of year Financial Times survey pointed to 55 of 70 of Britain’s leading economists believing that house prices were still too high.

Nevertheless, home lending has continued to increase with Bank of England statistics indicating that the number of mortgage approvals has more than doubled in the last 12 months (net lending has increased for the third month in a row to £1.46 billion, a level last seen in February).  Other positive news shows that unemployment has been decreasing to 2,093 people being made redundant every day in December (compared to 2,247 in November).  Buy to let mortgage rates remain fairly low although it is predicted that high LTV products will not appear on the market any time soon.

To gain direct unlimited access to the factsheets (as well as the other free guides, videos, landlord tools etc.) please ensure you are registered to the Property Investor Hub by clicking here.

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The Economy in 2009 for the Property Investor: Quarter 1

December 22nd, 2009

The Economy in 2009 for the Property Investor: Quarter 1

January 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 1.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 3.00%
Retail Price Index (RPI): 0.1%
Several house prices indices pointed to the largest annual decline of house prices since
January 2001.  According to Richard Donnell, Director of Research at Hometrack, at the time: “The market is at the mercy of the economy; the short-term prospects for the economy and levels of unemployment are at the forefront of most consumers’ minds and these will be key to the performance of the housing market over 2009.”  According to Hometrack’s monthly survey of 5,800 estate agents, the average time that a property stayed on the market also grew to 12.3 weeks (a 45% increase from a year earlier).  On a wider economic scale, reports in
January pointed to a 1.5% contraction at the close of 2008, prompted by the seizing up of credit markets and declines in the services, manufacturing and construction industries.
Statistics also pointed to joblessness rising to a ten year high.  Gordon Brown promised use ’every weapon’ to cull the effects of the credit squeeze and pledged the second bailout
package for British banks in an attempt to spur lending as well as boosting its stake in the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc to 70%.
February 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 1.00%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 3.20%
Retail Price Index (RPI): 0.0%
Whilst the number of new buyers registering with estate agents and property companies
increased by 17% in the month; Hometrack (who monitor sold house prices via the Land
Registry) reported that three-fifths of the country had seen values falling with sellers
receiving 90 percent of their asking price.  A median survey of 14 house price forecasts
pointed to a 17.7% drop from a year earlier.  The average cost of a home in England and Wales had declined by 10 percent from the same period a year before (and dropped 0.8% from a month earlier) and, according to the Nationwide, consumer confidence held close to its lowest since at least 2004.  Banks and lenders across the globe were hoarding up cash after racking up more than $1.2 trillion in losses.  According to Martin Ellis, economist at the Halifax, at the time: “continuing pressures on incomes, rising unemployment and the negative impact of the dislocation of the financial markets on the availability of mortgage finance are likely to mean that 2009 will be another difficult year for the housing market.”   Nevertheless, some positive news appeared with the fact that mortgage approvals rose to a nine-month high (over 38,000 new home loans were granted, up from a trough of 27,000 in November 2008).
March 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2.90%
Retail Price Index (RPI): -0.4%
According to Nationwide, house prices rose by 0.9% (although it should be noted that this index is based on agreed sales prices and not actual sold data).  Both Hometrack and RICS data (which is evidentially more accurate) pointed to house prices falling at their slowest pace in 10 months as well as more buyers registering with estate agents.  The average cost of a 2 year fixed mortgage fell to 4.01 percent in March (the rate did not drop in line with the BBR but was still lower than the 6.08 percent average in August 2008).  The index of construction activity, according to the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, also rose (although still showed a contraction in the industry).  However, as Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said in a statement at the time: “It is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has been reached; the willingness of borrowers to return to the market is
encouraging and likely to in part reflect the falling cost of borrowing.”  The UK economy
contracted at its quickest pace since the 1980s prompting the Bank of England to bring the base rate to its lowest in three centuries at 0.5%.  The UK central bank commenced a £75
billion spending strategy on corporate and government bonds to stimulate spending
(‘quantitative easing’).  According to research published by the Halifax UK, homeowners at the time saw their spending power rise by over a tenth since the year previous.  Between March 2008 and March 2009, the average monthly discretionary income of a households with
mortgages increased from £892 to £989.  Private renters saw their discretionary income
remain generally flat rising by 0.3% between the same period (£801 to £804).

January 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 1.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 3.00%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): 0.1%

Several house prices indices pointed to the largest annual decline of house prices since January 2001.  According to Richard Donnell, Director of Research at Hometrack, at the time: “The market is at the mercy of the economy; the short-term prospects for the economy and levels of unemployment are at the forefront of most consumers’ minds and these will be key to the performance of the housing market over 2009.”  According to Hometrack’s monthly survey of 5,800 estate agents, the average time that a property stayed on the market also grew to 12.3 weeks (a 45% increase from a year earlier).  On a wider economic scale, reports in January pointed to a 1.5% contraction at the close of 2008, prompted by the seizing up of credit markets and declines in the services, manufacturing and construction industries.  Statistics also pointed to joblessness rising to a ten year high.  Gordon Brown promised use ‘every weapon’ to cull the effects of the credit squeeze and pledged the second bailout package for British banks in an attempt to spur lending as well as boosting its stake in the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc to 70%.

February 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 1.00%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 3.20%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): 0.0%

Whilst the number of new buyers registering with estate agents and property companies increased by 17% in the month; Hometrack (who monitor sold house prices via the Land Registry) reported that three-fifths of the country had seen values falling with sellers receiving 90 percent of their asking price.  A median survey of 14 house price forecasts pointed to a 17.7% drop from a year earlier.  The average cost of a home in England and Wales had declined by 10 percent from the same period a year before (and dropped 0.8% from a month earlier) and, according to the Nationwide, consumer confidence held close to its lowest since at least 2004.  Banks and lenders across the globe were hoarding up cash after racking up more than $1.2 trillion in losses.  According to Martin Ellis, economist at the Halifax, at the time: “continuing pressures on incomes, rising unemployment and the negative impact of the dislocation of the financial markets on the availability of mortgage finance are likely to mean that 2009 will be another difficult year for the housing market.”   Nevertheless, some positive news appeared with the fact that mortgage approvals rose to a nine-month high (over 38,000 new home loans were granted, up from a trough of 27,000 in November 2008).

March 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2.90%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): -0.4%

According to Nationwide, house prices rose by 0.9% (although it should be noted that this index is based on agreed sales prices and not actual sold data).  Both Hometrack and RICS data (which is evidentially more accurate) pointed to house prices falling at their slowest pace in 10 months as well as more buyers registering with estate agents.  The average cost of a 2 year fixed mortgage fell to 4.01 percent in March (the rate did not drop in line with the BBR but was still lower than the 6.08 percent average in August 2008).  The index of construction activity, according to the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, also rose (although still showed a contraction in the industry).  However, as Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, said in a statement at the time: “It is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has been reached; the willingness of borrowers to return to the market is encouraging and likely to in part reflect the falling cost of borrowing.”  The UK economy contracted at its quickest pace since the 1980s prompting the Bank of England to bring the base rate to its lowest in three centuries at 0.5%.  The UK central bank commenced a £75 billion spending strategy on corporate and government bonds to stimulate spending (‘quantitative easing’).  According to research published by the Halifax UK, homeowners at the time saw their spending power rise by over a tenth since the year previous.  Between March 2008 and March 2009, the average monthly discretionary income of a households with mortgages increased from £892 to £989.  Private renters saw their discretionary income remain generally flat rising by 0.3% between the same period (£801 to £804).

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

In our full 2010 report, we look at what the all major house price indices / housing organisations are saying about the year ahead as well as some predictions for the economy in general (including relevant observations from the late 2009 Pre Budget Report). We then look at several investment property acquisition strategies (including lease options) followed, finally, by effective methods to conduct accurate due diligence in 2010.  To access the report (you will need to be a member of the Property Investor Hub), please click on the link below:

The Property Investor Report 2010

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The Economy in 2009 for the Property Investor: Quarter 2

December 22nd, 2009
April 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2.30%
Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.2%
House prices declined less than what
many economists and house price
indicators had forecast and many pointed
to improved affordability (several banks
began to indicate that lending will
increase).  However, A report produced
by Savills (the UK’s largest publicly traded
property broker) predicted that house prices may continue their decline until 2012 unless unemployment decreases and lending conditions improve.  As at mid-April, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, 900,000 British homeowners had mortgages greater than the value of their homes (the total number of UK home loans is 11.7 million).  As the effects of quantitative easing filtered through into the economy, the pound fell against both the euro and the dollar.  Nevertheless, Nationwide reported that its data on consumer confidence saw
statistics rise by 8 points from March.
The annual survey published by Liverpool Victoria – ‘The Cost of a Child’ showed that parents could spend £193,772 on raising a child from birth until the age of 21.  This equates to £9,227 a year, £769 per month or £25 per day.
May 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2.20%
Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.1%
According to Hometrack, UK house prices stopped falling for the first time in 20 months with the average house prices in England and Wales held at £155,600.  Six of the 10 regions
monitored in detailed survey pointed to no change in house prices (in the the East Midlands, the North West, the West Midlands and Yorkshire values declined 0.1 percent from April).
According to Director of Research, Richard Donnell: “The survey shows that pricing
expectations among vendors has finally re-aligned to a level that is more in line with what the current pool of purchasers are prepared to pay.  However, the outlook for the economy
remains far from certain. It is too early to rule out future price falls.”  The number of new buyers registering with estate agents rose 6% from April and the sales to asking prices were achieving, on average, 90.3% – a rise from 89.6% on the previous month.
The Government proposed to set up a national register of UK Landlords with the aim of
protecting tenants which, whilst having good intention, was criticised by a number of bodies.  David Salisbury, Chairman of the National Landlords Association (NLA), stated: “We consider this to be overly intrusive and of no direct benefit to tenants or landlords. Landlords already face a heavy regulatory burden as it is.”  It was also pointed out that a similar scheme was set up in Scotland which was proven not to work.
Despite falls the month before the value of the pound rose and consumer confidence
continued to rise.  The Consumer Credit
Counselling Service (CCCS), whilst
reporting a significant drop in the amount
of people requesting for help, stated that
the average yearly income of a couple
contacting the organisation dropped 12%
between October 2006 and May 2009.
The report also stated that, whilst
essential living costs had broadly remained
the same, the amount of money people
had to repay their debts had dropped
from £197 to minus £114.  In the second
quarter of 2009, over 30% of clients using the CCCS were advised that there was no
immediate solution to their debt problem (they neither would be able to fund a debt
repayment plan or IVA nor qualify for a bankruptcy or debt relief order) – the best hope was to increase their income.  It was also reported that there were 5.84 million working age
benefit claimants – an increase of 694,000 in the year.  By the end of May, there were 12.5 million people of state pension age claiming benefits from the Department of Work and
Pensions (DWP) – an increase of 221,000 since a year before.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) undertook a ‘stress test’ of the UKs major banks based on a 50% drop of residential property; a 60% drop in commercial prices; an unemployment rate over 12% and a peak-to-trough drop in GDP of over 6%.  The fact that full results were not made publically available sparked media debate with the FSA defending that the tests were designed to formulate a continuing review of regulatory decisions.  Barclays Plc were the only bank who disclosed its results which proved to have more than enough capital in a variety of ‘stressed’ situations.
June 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.80%
Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.6%
Despite rising optimism in previous months, the Halifax (who arguably take a more ‘liberal’ view on house prices) reported a slide of 0.5% in average house prices.  Martin Ellis, Housing Economist stated at the time that he expected to see: “continuing mixed pattern of monthly house price rises and falls over the remainder of 2009” and added, “whilst there have been encouraging recent signs of improvement, the outlook for the UK economy remains uncertain with unemployment set to continue rising for some time.”  The percentage of households with no adults at work by the end of June was at 16.9% (40.4% in lone parent households).
According to Job Centre statistics, the number of working-age people in workless households reached 4.8 million and there were 5.5 million households where at least one person above the age of 16 was in employment and the other was unemployed or inactive.
Concerns that insufficient bank lending will impede a full recovery were also becoming more and more apparent – Stephen Nickell, Chairman of the National Housing Planning and Advice Unit (and former Bank of England Monetary Committee member) commented at the time: “Mortgage rationing for first-time buyers is the fundamental factor; unless that eases, it’s
going to be very difficult for the market to recover and grow at previous levels. There’s no doubt that the rate of falls has slowed down at the moment, but I can’t see prices taking off.”  The Financial Services Authority estimated that there were 403,000 loan accounts in arrears representing a 30% on the same period a year before.  Research from ‘Shelter’ and ‘Money Advice’ showed that 1.3 low-income households were struggling with their finances (four in ten of those surveyed felt their debts were harming their physical and mental well being).
Indeed, in contrast to the CCCS decreasing enquiries figure in May, the Citizens Advice
Bureau reported dealing with 9,300 debt problems every day – a figure that shot up in the three months to the end of June.  Despite this, mortgage approvals increased to over 47,000 – the highest in over a year according to the British Bankers Association.  The Council of
Mortgage Lenders (CML) cut its forecast from 75,000 to 65,000 saying that low interest rates are helping homeowners keep up with their commitments.  The British Retail Consortium
indicated that shop-price inflation was slowing which, in turn, was helping purchasing power (the annual rate of price gains in UK shops was 0.5% in June, its lowest in seven months).
According to NS&I’s Quartely Savings Survey, the monthly amount saved per head across the UK declined slightly from £92.41 in spring 2009 to £90.73 in the summer.  The average amount saved as a percentage of income fell to 6.65% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, despite an increase in the average monthly take-home income.

The Economy in 2009 for the Property Investor: Quarter 2

April 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2.30%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.2%

House prices declined less than what many economists and house price indicators had forecast and many pointed to improved affordability (several banks began to indicate that lending will increase).  However, A report produced by Savills (the UK’s largest publicly traded property broker) predicted that house prices may continue their decline until 2012 unless unemployment decreases and lending conditions improve.

As at mid-April, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, 900,000 British homeowners had mortgages greater than the value of their homes (the total number of UK home loans is 11.7 million).  As the effects of quantitative easing filtered through into the economy, the pound fell against both the euro and the dollar.  Nevertheless, Nationwide reported that its data on consumer confidence saw statistics rise by 8 points from March.

The annual survey published by Liverpool Victoria – ‘The Cost of a Child’ showed that parents could spend £193,772 on raising a child from birth until the age of 21.  This equates to £9,227 a year, £769 per month or £25 per day.

May 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2.20%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.1%

According to Hometrack, UK house prices stopped falling for the first time in 20 months with the average house prices in England and Wales held at £155,600.  Six of the 10 regions monitored in detailed survey pointed to no change in house prices (in the the East Midlands, the North West, the West Midlands and Yorkshire values declined 0.1 percent from April).

According to Director of Research, Richard Donnell: “The survey shows that pricing expectations among vendors has finally re-aligned to a level that is more in line with what the current pool of purchasers are prepared to pay.  However, the outlook for the economy remains far from certain. It is too early to rule out future price falls.”  The number of new buyers registering with estate agents rose 6% from April and the sales to asking prices were achieving, on average, 90.3% – a rise from 89.6% on the previous month.

The Government proposed to set up a national register of UK Landlords with the aim of protecting tenants which, whilst having good intention, was criticised by a number of bodies.  David Salisbury, Chairman of the National Landlords Association (NLA), stated: “We consider this to be overly intrusive and of no direct benefit to tenants or landlords. Landlords already face a heavy regulatory burden as it is.”  It was also pointed out that a similar scheme was set up in Scotland which was proven not to work.

Despite falls the month before the value of the pound rose and consumer confidence continued to rise.  The Consumer Credit Counselling Service (CCCS), whilst reporting a significant drop in the amount of people requesting for help, stated that the average yearly income of a couple contacting the organisation dropped 12% between October 2006 and May 2009.  The report also stated that, whilst essential living costs had broadly remained the same, the amount of money people had to repay their debts had dropped from £197 to minus £114.  In the second quarter of 2009, over 30% of clients using the CCCS were advised that there was no immediate solution to their debt problem (they neither would be able to fund a debt repayment plan or IVA nor qualify for a bankruptcy or debt relief order) – the best hope was to increase their income.  It was also reported that there were 5.84 million working age benefit claimants – an increase of 694,000 in the year.  By the end of May, there were 12.5 million people of state pension age claiming benefits from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) – an increase of 221,000 since a year before.

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) undertook a ‘stress test’ of the UKs major banks based on a 50% drop of residential property; a 60% drop in commercial prices; an unemployment rate over 12% and a peak-to-trough drop in GDP of over 6%.  The fact that full results were not made publically available sparked media debate with the FSA defending that the tests were designed to formulate a continuing review of regulatory decisions.  Barclays Plc were the only bank who disclosed its results which proved to have more than enough capital in a variety of ‘stressed’ situations.

June 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.80%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.6%

Despite rising optimism in previous months, the Halifax (who arguably take a more ‘liberal’ view on house prices) reported a slide of 0.5% in average house prices.  Martin Ellis, Housing Economist stated at the time that he expected to see: “continuing mixed pattern of monthly house price rises and falls over the remainder of 2009” and added, “whilst there have been encouraging recent signs of improvement, the outlook for the UK economy remains uncertain with unemployment set to continue rising for some time.”  The percentage of households with no adults at work by the end of June was at 16.9% (40.4% in lone parent households).

According to Job Centre statistics, the number of working-age people in workless households reached 4.8 million and there were 5.5 million households where at least one person above the age of 16 was in employment and the other was unemployed or inactive.

Concerns that insufficient bank lending will impede a full recovery were also becoming more and more apparent – Stephen Nickell, Chairman of the National Housing Planning and Advice Unit (and former Bank of England Monetary Committee member) commented at the time: “Mortgage rationing for first-time buyers is the fundamental factor; unless that eases, it’s going to be very difficult for the market to recover and grow at previous levels. There’s no doubt that the rate of falls has slowed down at the moment, but I can’t see prices taking off.”  The Financial Services Authority estimated that there were 403,000 loan accounts in arrears representing a 30% on the same period a year before.  Research from ‘Shelter’ and ‘Money Advice’ showed that 1.3 low-income households were struggling with their finances (four in ten of those surveyed felt their debts were harming their physical and mental well being).

Indeed, in contrast to the CCCS decreasing enquiries figure in May, the Citizens Advice Bureau reported dealing with 9,300 debt problems every day – a figure that shot up in the three months to the end of June.  Despite this, mortgage approvals increased to over 47,000 – the highest in over a year according to the British Bankers Association.  The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) cut its forecast from 75,000 to 65,000 saying that low interest rates are helping homeowners keep up with their commitments.  The British Retail Consortium indicated that shop-price inflation was slowing which, in turn, was helping purchasing power (the annual rate of price gains in UK shops was 0.5% in June, its lowest in seven months).

According to NS&I’s Quartely Savings Survey, the monthly amount saved per head across the UK declined slightly from £92.41 in spring 2009 to £90.73 in the summer.  The average amount saved as a percentage of income fell to 6.65% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, despite an increase in the average monthly take-home income.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

In our full 2010 report, we look at what the all major house price indices / housing organisations are saying about the year ahead as well as some predictions for the economy in general (including relevant observations from the late 2009 Pre Budget Report). We then look at several investment property acquisition strategies (including lease options) followed, finally, by effective methods to conduct accurate due diligence in 2010.  To access the report (you will need to be a member of the Property Investor Hub), please click on the link below:

The Property Investor Report 2010

Share and Enjoy:
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The Economy in 2009 for the Property Investor: Quarter 3

December 22nd, 2009
July 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR) – 0.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.80%
Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.4%
Hometrack reported that the house prices in England and Wales held their value as the credit crunch and recession continued to stifle the property market from improving.  The average cost of a property in England and Wales was £155,600, 7.7% lower than their estimation in July 2008.  Eight out of the 10 regions monitored by Hometrack showed no changes, whilst London and East Anglia both had an increase of 0.1%.  According to Richard Donnell, Director of Research at Hometrack: “The housing market remains in a fragile state. A sustainable and broad based recovery needs to be founded on both an improving economic outlook and
availability of mortgage finance.”  With intense media reporting that the market was on the way to recovery, home sellers rasied asking prices; the average ‘shop window’ price rose by 0.6% to £227,864.  However, many debated that house prices were set to fall further and the increases (such as those widely reported in June and August) were summer ‘blips’.  Although mortgage approvals had increased (50,123), Bank of England data showed that banks had
approved less than half the amount of mortgages when compared to the same month two years before (as the property market was peaking).  Property investors offering sell and rent back to homeowners were required to adhere to regulatory standards set up by the Financial Services Authority (FSA).  The regulation was largely a result of unscrupulous property
investors taking advantage of vulnerable homeowners’ positions and a need to have an
‘adequate’ framework for the industry to operate in.  There remain a few high profile sell and rent back companies operating in the UK.
M4, the broadest measure of UK money supply, rose more than forecast (at a rise of 1.5% on the month and 14.5% on the year).  Other statistics revealed that the overall UK economy contracted by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2009 (over twice as much as economists had forecast) as the finance and manufacturing industries slumped.  Net credit card lending fell to 92 million pounds (its lowest since December 2008) and the British Bankers Association
reported that 768,000 applications for consumer credit were rejected at month end.
August 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.60%
Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.3%
As the 2 year anniversary of the onset of the credit crunch passed, the Halifax reported that house prices have fallen 20% with almost £40,000 wiped off the average home since August 2007.  According to the Land Registry, average house prices rose the most in five years and at their fastest pace in 2 ½ years.  UK homebuilders Taylor Wimpey stated the market as being ‘significantly more stable’ and applications for new build homes increased 2.5% in the three months prior to August, according the National House Building Council.  As a result of the marginal increase in house prices, the British Retail Consortium noted that shop-price
inflation was slowing, thereby improving purchasing power (the annual measure of price gains was 0.5% in June, is lowest in seven months).  Unemployment figures continued to increase as the economy, overall, continued to shrink (reaching a 14 year high).  After initially
considering whether to hold back, Bank of England policy makers extended their bond-
purchase program to £175 billion to ‘cement’ the recovery.  The increasing popularity of using lease options to control property was gaining popularity amongst UK property investors and even appeared in the mainstream media as shown by this link from the Times.
September 2009
Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.10%
Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.4%
According to an average of nine house price indices, house prices increased by 0.6% (the Halifax house price index pointed to average valuations climbing 1.6% to an average of £163,533).  Housing Economist at the Halifax, Martin Ellis, at the time stated: “The
combination of increased demand and a low level of properties available for sale has pushed up house prices in recent months.  The marked improvement in affordability due to the
reduction in both property prices and interest rates since mid 2007 has been a key factor in stimulating higher demand.”  Lenders granted 56,215 home loans in September, the most since March 2008, according to the Bank of England.  The number of homeowners in arrears also decreased (194,600 mortgages at the end of September compared to 204,200 at the end of June).  Nevertheless, several prominent economists and housing analysts pointed to the ‘irrational’ rally of property price increases to wane over the subsequent 18 months.
Evidence was illustrating more of a ‘W’ shaped cycle where the house price bounce would tail off and fall back in 2010 before recovering fully in 2012.  According to CML statistics at the time, 195,000 people were in arrears of at least 2.5% of their outstanding mortgage at the end of September, the equivalent of 1.77% of all mortgage customers, which has decreased 204,200 or 1.86% at the end of June.  According to the Department for Communities and
Local Government (DCLG), at the end of September, the average house price in the UK for first time buyers was at £147,517 – an annual decrease of -1.3%.  The average first time buyer deposit stood at £37,225 (25%) with an earnings to mortgage ratio of 3:1.
The service industry grew at its fastest pace with increased consumer confidence yet policy makers said that rising unemployment, persistent credit strains, impending tax increases and spending cuts (to rein in a record budget deficit) mean that the economy could take years to recover.  Unemployment reached 2.46 million (7.8%): an increase of 30,000 from the previous three months – this was the highest quarterly figure since quarter one of 1995.  2,247 people a day at the time were declaring themselves redundant and government statistics noted a gap of 820,000 between the number of unemployed people and the number of people claim Jobseekers’ Allowance (1.64 million).  The proportion of young people, aged 18-24, not in
education, employment or training (NEET) increased by 113,000 when comparing quarter 3 with the same period in 2008 (a total of 933,000).  The proportion of 16 to 18 year olds
defined as being in the NEET category  stood at 261,000.  The total of 16 to 24 year olds
classified as NEETs stood at 1.082 million – the highest on record.  By the end of
September, the unemployment rate for 18 to 24 year olds increased by 3.3% (24,000) from quarter 2 and 25.5% (165,000) when compared to quarter 3 of 2008 – the highest figures recorded since records began in 1992.  As at the end of quarter 3, the number of people aged 50+ out of work was 367,000, increase of 37.7% from the year before.  The number of people over the state pension age that were choosing to continue work also increased with a rise of over 76,000 when compared to quarter 3 of 2008.  Scottish Widows figures pointed to the fact that one in six retired people still have an outstanding mortgage with an average debt of £50,100 and also that 34% are in the red on loans and credit cards (the average outstanding non-mortgage debt was reported to be £7,344).  The Prudential stated that one in 10
workers who have state pension have reduced the amount they are contributing or have stopped altogether.  Government statistics illustrated that there are more people of state
pension age then under 16s.  Statistics compiled during ‘Financial Planning Week’ reported the following:
•  more than a quarter of Brits are relying on winning the Lottery to help improve their financial situation;
•  over half of Brits stated they were having difficulty keeping up with bills and other commitments  - although 5% stated they were falling behind;
•  26% have a budget they strictly stick to;
•  31% have made a will.

The Economy in 2009 for the Property Investor: Quarter 3

July 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR) – 0.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.80%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.4%

Hometrack reported that the house prices in England and Wales held their value as the credit crunch and recession continued to stifle the property market from improving.  The average cost of a property in England and Wales was £155,600, 7.7% lower than their estimation in July 2008.  Eight out of the 10 regions monitored by Hometrack showed no changes, whilst London and East Anglia both had an increase of 0.1%.  According to Richard Donnell, Director of Research at Hometrack: “The housing market remains in a fragile state. A sustainable and broad based recovery needs to be founded on both an improving economic outlook and availability of mortgage finance.”  With intense media reporting that the market was on the way to recovery, home sellers raised asking prices: the average ‘shop window’ price rose by 0.6% to £227,864.  However, many debated that house prices were set to fall further and the increases (such as those widely reported in June and August) were summer ‘blips’.  Although mortgage approvals had increased (50,123), Bank of England data showed that banks had approved less than half the amount of mortgages when compared to the same month two years before (as the property market was peaking).  Property investors offering sell and rent back to homeowners were required to adhere to regulatory standards set up by the Financial Services Authority (FSA).  The regulation was largely a result of unscrupulous property investors taking advantage of vulnerable homeowners’ positions and a need to have an ‘adequate’ framework for the industry to operate in.  There remain a few high profile sell and rent back companies operating in the UK.

M4, the broadest measure of UK money supply, rose more than forecast (at a rise of 1.5% on the month and 14.5% on the year).  Other statistics revealed that the overall UK economy contracted by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2009 (over twice as much as economists had forecast) as the finance and manufacturing industries slumped.  Net credit card lending fell to 92 million pounds (its lowest since December 2008) and the British Bankers Association reported that 768,000 applications for consumer credit were rejected at month end.

August 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.60%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.3%

As the 2 year anniversary of the onset of the credit crunch passed, the Halifax reported that house prices have fallen 20% with almost £40,000 wiped off the average home since August 2007.  According to the Land Registry, average house prices rose the most in five years and at their fastest pace in 2 ½ years.  UK homebuilders Taylor Wimpey stated the market as being ‘significantly more stable’ and applications for new build homes increased 2.5% in the three months prior to August, according the National House Building Council.  As a result of the marginal increase in house prices, the British Retail Consortium noted that shop-price inflation was slowing, thereby improving purchasing power (the annual measure of price gains was 0.5% in June, is lowest in seven months).  Unemployment figures continued to increase as the economy, overall, continued to shrink (reaching a 14 year high).  After initially considering whether to hold back, Bank of England policy makers extended their bond-purchase program to £175 billion to ‘cement’ the recovery.  The increasing popularity of using lease options to control property was gaining popularity amongst UK property investors and even appeared in the mainstream media as shown by this link from the Times.

September 2009

  • Bank Base Rate (BBR): 0.50%
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 1.10%
  • Retail Price Index (RPI): -1.4%

According to an average of nine house price indices, house prices increased by 0.6% (the Halifax house price index pointed to average valuations climbing 1.6% to an average of £163,533).  Housing Economist at the Halifax, Martin Ellis, at the time stated: “The combination of increased demand and a low level of properties available for sale has pushed up house prices in recent months.  The marked improvement in affordability due to the reduction in both property prices and interest rates since mid 2007 has been a key factor in stimulating higher demand.”  Lenders granted 56,215 home loans in September, the most since March 2008, according to the Bank of England.  The number of homeowners in arrears also decreased (194,600 mortgages at the end of September compared to 204,200 at the end of June).  Nevertheless, several prominent economists and housing analysts pointed to the ‘irrational’ rally of property price increases to wane over the subsequent 18 months.   Evidence was illustrating more of a ‘W’ shaped cycle where the house price bounce would tail off and fall back in 2010 before recovering fully in 2012.  According to CML statistics at the time, 195,000 people were in arrears of at least 2.5% of their outstanding mortgage at the end of September, the equivalent of 1.77% of all mortgage customers, which has decreased 204,200 or 1.86% at the end of June.  According to the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG), at the end of September, the average house price in the UK for first time buyers was at £147,517 – an annual decrease of -1.3%.  The average first time buyer deposit stood at £37,225 (25%) with an earnings to mortgage ratio of 3:1.

The service industry grew at its fastest pace with increased consumer confidence yet policy makers said that rising unemployment, persistent credit strains, impending tax increases and spending cuts (to rein in a record budget deficit) mean that the economy could take years to recover.  Unemployment reached 2.46 million (7.8%): an increase of 30,000 from the previous three months – this was the highest quarterly figure since quarter one of 1995.  2,247 people a day at the time were declaring themselves redundant and government statistics noted a gap of 820,000 between the number of unemployed people and the number of people claim Jobseekers’ Allowance (1.64 million).  The proportion of young people, aged 18-24, not in education, employment or training (NEET) increased by 113,000 when comparing quarter 3 with the same period in 2008 (a total of 933,000).  The proportion of 16 to 18 year olds defined as being in the NEET category  stood at 261,000.  The total of 16 to 24 year olds classified as NEETs stood at 1.082 million – the highest on record.  By the end of

September, the unemployment rate for 18 to 24 year olds increased by 3.3% (24,000) from quarter 2 and 25.5% (165,000) when compared to quarter 3 of 2008 – the highest figures recorded since records began in 1992.  As at the end of quarter 3, the number of people aged 50+ out of work was 367,000, increase of 37.7% from the year before.  The number of people over the state pension age that were choosing to continue work also increased with a rise of over 76,000 when compared to quarter 3 of 2008.  Scottish Widows figures pointed to the fact that one in six retired people still have an outstanding mortgage with an average debt of £50,100 and also that 34% are in the red on loans and credit cards (the average outstanding non-mortgage debt was reported to be £7,344).  The Prudential stated that one in 10 workers who have state pension have reduced the amount they are contributing or have stopped altogether.  Government statistics illustrated that there are more people of state pension age then under 16s.  Statistics compiled during ‘Financial Planning Week’ reported the following:

  • more than a quarter of Brits are relying on winning the Lottery to help improve their financial situation;
  • over half of Brits stated they were having difficulty keeping up with bills and other commitments – although 5% stated they were falling behind;
  • 26% have a budget they strictly stick to;
  • 31% have made a will.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————

In our full 2010 report, we look at what the all major house price indices / housing organisations are saying about the year ahead as well as some predictions for the economy in general (including relevant observations from the late 2009 Pre Budget Report). We then look at several investment property acquisition strategies (including lease options) followed, finally, by effective methods to conduct accurate due diligence in 2010.  To access the report (you will need to be a member of the Property Investor Hub), please click on the link below:

The Property Investor Report 2010

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